Israel coalition talks put Arab party leader under pressure over Hamas

The question of whether Mansour Abbas will recognize Hamas as a 'terrorist' organization may determine whether his party plays a role in Israel's next government. According to Israel's Ynet news website, Abbas has signaled to parties opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he would agree to the designation in exchange for a 'genuine partnership' in a coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot, who has been tasked with forming a new government after last month's elections.

Eisenkot has made recognizing Hamas as a 'terrorist' group one of the conditions for joining his prospective coalition. He has also demanded that Abbas recognize Israel as a Jewish and democratic state – despite Abbas's own identity as a Palestinian citizen of Israel. But on Wednesday, Abbas denied that he had made a declaration on Hamas, having earlier in the week simply reiterated Ra'am's support for disarming Hamas and condemning 'terrorism'.

Political Dilemma

The demands concerning Hamas and recognizing Israel as a Jewish state pose a problem for Abbas, whose party represents Palestinian citizens of Israel – around 20 percent of the population. He wants to join the government – having done so in 2021 – seeing it as a way to improve the lives of Palestinian citizens and force Netanyahu and other far-right figures out of power.

However, declaring Hamas a 'terrorist' group would be seen by critics as supporting the Israeli narrative during a genocidal war on Gaza that has killed more than 74,600 Palestinians. During consultations with Israeli President Isaac Herzog on November 5, Abbas said he needed the 'space to be a bridge' between Jews and Palestinians, adding: 'Leave me also a space to protect myself and my family,' calling it an issue of 'life and death'.

Competing Loyalties

Ehab Jabareen, an analyst and Palestinian citizen of Israel, told Al Jazeera that Eisenkot's conditions are intended to make a partnership with Ra'am more acceptable to his Jewish Israeli supporters. 'Eisenkot is telling them practically that Ra'am's votes will help him form the government, and that this partnership will take place according to the definition he wants for the state,' Jabareen said.

Including Ra'am's eight seats in parliament would help Eisenkot secure a viable coalition, as his own bloc has 48 seats. Ra'am and the Joint List recommended him to lead the government, though the Joint List is more unlikely to agree to Eisenkot's demands and would likely support from outside the government. Abbas has previously accepted Israel's Jewish character as a political reality but clarified this year that accepting it as a fact doesn't mean endorsing it.

The prospect of Ra'am joining an Eisenkot government has been seized upon by Netanyahu, who has portrayed parties representing Palestinian citizens as a danger to the state. However, reports suggest Netanyahu's close associate Natan Eshel has contacted Abbas to gauge his stance on supporting Eisenkot.

External Support Dilemma

Abbas's options include joining Eisenkot's coalition, supporting a minority government from outside, or joining the opposition. 'Supporting the government from outside it may reduce the cost of having an open partnership with Eisenkot, and give Abbas greater freedom to object to government decisions,' Jabareen said. However, Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman has repeatedly said he would oppose a minority government dependent on Arab-led parties.

Jabareen warned that any future conflict could put any arrangement under strain. 'If it is just a short confrontation with Iran, then there is more of a chance of Abbas staying in any coalition,' he said. 'But if it is a wider war in Gaza, or an escalation in Al-Aqsa or the West Bank, or even in Lebanon, that would put him under direct pressure from his supporters.' He pointed to Ra'am suspending its participation in the Israeli government in 2022 over police raids at Al-Aqsa Mosque, asking: 'Would Ra'am stay silent on those issues just to keep the coalition together?'