ASEAN summit: Who’s attending and what’s at stake?
Leaders from the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will meet in the Philippines this week, joined by US President Donald Trump and other global leaders, to address a region facing severe energy shortages and trade tensions.
The Manila summit, scheduled for November 15 to 17, will be the bloc's final meeting of the year. It brings together leaders from the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and a roster of high-profile guests, including US President Donald Trump, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney, and Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
The Philippines, which is hosting the event, has declared a state of national energy emergency. This declaration highlights the severe impact of the energy crisis on the region, a crisis that has been exacerbated by the US-Israel war on Iran and intensifying US-China rivalry.
The summit's agenda is dominated by the energy crisis, which has hit Southeast Asian economies hard. The Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia are among the most vulnerable to disruptions in oil and gas supplies from the Middle East.
Southeast Asian countries that comprise the ASEAN economic bloc will meet in the Philippines this week as the region continues to bear the brunt of oil shortages caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, as well as by US-China rivalry, which has hit economies hard.
Energy crisis and trade tensions
The conflict in the Middle East has not only disrupted energy supplies but also threatens the safety and livelihoods of millions of ASEAN citizens who work in the region. Asian countries are also concerned that the war could spill into the Strait of Malacca, a critical waterway between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.
Beyond the energy crisis, the summit will address the US's tariff war. ASEAN countries have been slapped with 10-12.5 percent tariff hikes since the beginning of US President Donald Trump's second term, prompting the bloc to strengthen trade relationships elsewhere.
The Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., is set to hold a special summit with ASEAN members on November 17. This meeting comes as Washington's trade tensions with China continue, and Trump is due to head to China for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting on 18-19 November.
The summit's guest list includes several leaders who are not ASEAN members but are key trading partners. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney, and Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are all attending. Lula's visit will be the first by a sitting Brazilian president to the Philippines.
India is a key trading partner to member states.
South China Sea and territorial disputes
A major point of contention at the summit will be the South China Sea. China and four ASEAN members – Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam – have been locked in decades of territorial standoffs in the busy waterway, which is believed to host undersea deposits of oil and gas.
In 2005, the bloc began negotiating a "code of conduct" with China to discourage aggression and prevent major clashes. The negotiations have often stalled, but in 2023, the two sides agreed to speed things up and release a finished draft this year. At least 10 rounds of talks have been held this year, led by Malaysia.
Despite the progress, analysts doubt a definite conclusion will be reached at the summit this week. The talks could continue into next year, with the final round having taken place in October.
Regional conflicts and environmental challenges
The summit will also address several other pressing regional issues. Thailand and Cambodia have been locked in armed clashes along an 800km contested border area, with at least 150 people reported killed and nearly one million displaced.
ASEAN members, as well as China and the US, have intervened to lead talks. Although a ceasefire has been in place since December, the wider border dispute remains unresolved, and the bloc is calling for more dialogue and the participation of third-party observers.
The ongoing civil war in Myanmar, which has compounded the Rohingya refugee crisis, will also be on the agenda. ASEAN has already restricted Myanmar's participation at important summits to non-political representatives as concerns about violence and a humanitarian crisis grow.
The summit will also address the environmental challenge of cross-border haze. Months of widespread wildfires in drought-hit Indonesia have scorched an estimated 2.88 million hectares and resulted in at least 3,500 deaths. The resulting haze has severely impacted not just Indonesia's residents, but also those in neighbouring Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and East Timor.
Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is also attending the summit, marking his visit after the Russia-ASEAN summit in July.
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