What’s keeping Bitcoin buyers away despite 2 leverage flushes in 5 days? - Cryptonews.net

On October 29, the largest hack in crypto history pushed Bitcoin to a low near $76,200. Just a week later, on November 5, an AI-driven tech crash spilled over into crypto markets, with the Nasdaq 100 falling 6.4% and semiconductor stocks tumbling 12%. These consecutive events triggered leveraged liquidations of approximately $1.1 billion, pushing Bitcoin's price below $74,000.

Despite Bitcoin's apparent resilience during these shocks - with a mere 6% drop compared to 15-39% drawdowns after past crypto crises - the market's initial optimism was misplaced. While institutional strength remained evident, retail demand failed to materialize, leaving a critical void in buyer interest.

Demand signals remain weak

The most concerning factor is what happened after the liquidations cleared: essentially nothing. Bitget Wallet's analysts noted that the leverage reset "has cleared some speculative excess, but is yet to address the underlying demand problem." This assessment is supported by several key indicators.

ETF flows dramatically reversed direction, with $2.6 billion in September inflows turning into $290 million of net outflows in October. Currently, U.S. ETF holders sit underwater below their $82,000 cost basis. Simultaneously, stablecoin supply has remained stagnant within the $305 billion zone, indicating frozen liquidity.

How ETF holders behave below breakeven remains the key tell for November.

Critical levels emerge

Analysts have converged on a critical price range that could determine Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. For 21Shares, $73,000 represents the 200-day moving average - the line that would reopen the bear-market debate. Bitget analysts similarly emphasize that Bitcoin must hold the $73K-$74K range to avoid further declines.

The significance of these levels cannot be overstated. A decisive break below $73,000 could expose $68,000, with a failure at that level suggesting more than just a temporary correction. Conversely, reclaiming and holding $80,000 would signal stronger demand, while getting back above $81,000 to $82,000 would put the largest holder cohorts back in profit.

What recovery actually needs

Both 21Shares and Bitget agree on what won't fix Bitcoin's demand problem - macro relief without actual buying interest. Bitget's analysts explicitly state that "a durable Bitcoin recovery will depend on improving liquidity and Spot demand, not macro relief alone." Matt Mena outlines a four-part checklist for November: Bitcoin holding $76K-$78K and reclaiming $80K-$82K, Binance completing withdrawals and proving reserves, credit spreads and oil/yields, and whether ETF flows return.

While upcoming inflation data could trigger short-term rallies, analysts distinguish between macro events and demand events. As Bitget notes, "a relief rally can be classed as a macro event, not a demand event. The inflation print can only deliver the former, and the latter can only come about by real flows." The AI crash further demonstrated that Bitcoin's movements remain tied to broader risk asset performance, with the absence of buyers during the downturn being particularly telling.

Ultimately, Bitcoin's future hinges on a single level. If buyers return and hold above $73,000, it would suggest the demand problem is cyclical. However, a break below that level, especially if $68,000 fails to hold, would confirm a structural breakdown. With leverage flushed twice and buyers still absent, Bitcoin's market finds itself at a critical juncture where the next move could define the final weeks of 2026.