AMD Just Had Its Biggest Run Against Nvidia Since 1999. Can It Survive Earnings?
AMD outperformed Nvidia by 53.2 percentage points over five trading days, the widest gap since Nvidia's IPO in January 1999.
The performance gap between the two chipmakers reached unprecedented levels, with AMD gaining 44.7% while Nvidia dropped 8.5% over the five-day period.
Looking at the full year picture, AMD's stock has surged 149.4% since January 1, while Nvidia has declined 12.7%, creating a year-to-date gap of approximately 162 percentage points. AMD closed Friday at $534.06, down from $585.30, and slipped another 2.41% in after-hours trading to around $521.20.
Nvidia Leadership Change
AMD's remarkable run coincided with growing scrutiny of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who resigned on November 12. The company immediately named CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO while searching for a permanent replacement. Nvidia's leadership crisis appears to have accelerated the shift in investor sentiment toward AMD.
AMD has been a major beneficiary of Nvidia's historic volatility
Strong Earnings Support
AMD's own financial performance provided additional support for its stock rally. The company reported third-quarter revenue rose 45% year-over-year to a record $13.4 billion, with data center sales nearly doubling to $8.5 billion. These strong results reinforced investor confidence in AMD's position in the competitive chip market.
The chip sector-wide sell-off on Friday, partly attributed to rising Treasury yields above 5%, saw AMD's trading volume reach 48.6 million shares—nearly double the three-month average. Analysts suggested profit-taking after the surge contributed to the decline.
Nvidia Earnings Test Ahead
All eyes now turn to Nvidia's earnings report scheduled for Tuesday after the US market close. The company has guided for $108 billion in third-quarter revenue, plus or minus 2%, while analysts polled by LSEG expect approximately $109.2 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.48 per share. These results will reflect Huang's final quarter as CEO.
The guidance for the next quarter will mark the first issued under Kress's interim leadership. Solid results could draw investors back to Nvidia, while a weak report might drag the entire chip sector lower, including AMD, as both stocks continue to trade in tandem. Nvidia's call will also reveal whether the company has observed any customer shift away from its AI chips toward AMD.
Related
