NHS England on track to miss key cancer treatment target by 10,000 patients

The NHS is facing a critical shortfall in cancer treatment, with official figures showing that nearly 10,000 more patients will not receive timely care due to the government's failure to meet its targets. The health service set an interim goal to treat 80% of cancer patients within 62 days of urgent referral or consultant upgrade by March 2027, but current performance suggests this target will be missed significantly.

Exclusive analysis for the Guardian reveals that the NHS would need to treat an additional 2,850 patients on time each month to reach the 80% target, assuming consistent patient volumes. According to calculations by Radiotherapy UK, the health service is treating approximately 21,500 cancer patients monthly within the timeframe, while 24,400 would be required to meet the target, creating a cumulative shortfall of 9,490 patients.

Treatment disparities

The analysis also uncovered significant disparities in treatment times across different cancer types. While 70.1% of prostate cancer patients and 68.8% of breast cancer patients received treatment within two months, the figures were considerably lower for other cancers: 60.9% for lung cancer, 60% for gynaecological cancers, and just 56.5% for head and neck cancers.

Regional inequalities were equally stark, with the Midlands recording the lowest proportion of timely treatments at 66.6%, compared to 77.3% in London. These disparities highlight systemic issues in cancer care delivery across different areas and cancer types.

Diagnostic challenges

The treatment shortfall occurs alongside significant problems in cancer diagnosis. Cancer Research UK analysis shows that only 55.4% of patients were diagnosed within 28 days of urgent referral over the past year, far below the 80% target. This is despite 79.1% of patients receiving the all-clear on time.

Naser Turabi, Cancer Research UK's director of health policy and evidence, noted that hospital capacity cannot keep pace with rising demand, with urgent referrals increasing by approximately 20% over the past four years. While recent investments in diagnostic equipment are welcome, they haven't sufficiently reduced waiting times for the 6% of people who receive a cancer diagnosis.

System failures

Experts attribute the failures to systemic issues including staff shortages, equipment limitations, and leadership problems. Mark Lawler, a professor at Queen's University Belfast, emphasized that "the whole system is being held together by goodwill glue alone" and warned that without accountability and a focus on basics, targets will continue to be missed.

Dr Hilary Williams from the Royal College of Physicians stressed that earlier diagnosis is only beneficial if treatment can follow promptly. "To close the gap, the NHS needs sufficient capacity across the whole cancer pathway," she said, highlighting the need for more diagnostic capacity and specialist workforce.

Dr Stephen Harden, president of the Royal College of Radiologists, pointed to "chronic shortages" of clinical radiologists and oncologists as "driving dangerous delays." He noted that NHS hiring freezes for these specialists have doubled in the past year, making it even harder to maintain timely care.

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson acknowledged that while cancer waiting times have improved compared to a year ago, "there is much more to do." They highlighted the national cancer plan as a strategy to improve earlier diagnosis and treatment, though specific measures to address the immediate shortfall remain unclear.