Bitcoin could fall below $16.5K, Peter Schiff warns Strategy - Crypto News
Bitcoin could revisit its 2022 low below $16,500 before the end of 2026 if selling accelerates after a break beneath $50,000, according to economist Peter Schiff, predicting severe consequences for Strategy.
Bitcoin could revisit its 2022 low below $16,500 before the end of 2026 if selling accelerates after a break beneath $50,000, according to economist and longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff. His prediction carries significant implications for Strategy, which holds substantial Bitcoin holdings that would face severe valuation declines if Schiff's scenario materializes.
Schiff's Bearish Forecast
Schiff outlined a two-stage bearish scenario in a Nov. 14 X post: first, a break beneath $50,000, followed by a possible retreat below $16,500. This would represent a decline of more than 67% between those levels. With Bitcoin trading around $67,200 at the time of reporting, reaching $50,000 would require a further drop of approximately 25.6%.
The Bitcoin collapse is gathering steam. I expect the momentum to pick up once Bitcoin breaks $50K. In fact, once it does, it could be a quick trip to the 2022 low below $16.5K. I wouldn't be surprised to see a retest of that level before year-end. If so, it's curtains for $MSTR.
Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings
Strategy, whose common shares trade on Nasdaq under MSTR, held 850,364 BTC as of Nov. 8, acquired at an average price of $75,456. The company bought another 1,036 BTC for $81.9 million during Nov. 2–8, paying an average of $79,012 per coin. It financed these purchases through common-stock sales, selling 2,051,348 MSTR shares for $283.8 million in net proceeds.
Applying Schiff's $50,000 threshold to Strategy's disclosed Bitcoin holdings produces a treasury value of approximately $42.52 billion. At $16,500, the same holdings would be worth roughly $14.03 billion, around $50.13 billion below their reported purchase cost. These calculations assume the company's holdings remain unchanged and describe only the value of its Bitcoin, excluding other assets and liabilities.
Mixed Analyst Views
Schiff's forecast contrasts with other analysts who have identified potential buying zones during the decline. On Nov. 13, analyst Doctor Profit identified $68,000 as a buying area and said he was placing substantial orders there. Daan Crypto Trades took a more cautious position, noting that Bitcoin's weekly candles needed to hold around its 200-week moving averages. Michaël van de Poppe said he bought Bitcoin during the Nov. 13 decline and forecast a possible recovery toward $72,000–$74,000 over the following days.
Company's Financial Preparations
Alongside its Bitcoin holdings, Strategy disclosed a $4.77 billion US dollar reserve and $146.2 million in general dollar cash as of Nov. 8. The filing describes the reserve as intended to support preferred-stock dividends and interest on outstanding debt. During Nov. 2–8, Strategy used $21.1 million from the reserve to pay preferred-stock dividends, demonstrating its preparation for potential financial obligations amid Bitcoin's price volatility.
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