How SAF successes in Sudan’s Kordofan could turn tide against the RSF
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have gained control over several strategically important villages in west Kordofan, shifting the war against the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in their favor.
On Friday, the Sudanese army took control of al-Khuwai, one of the main towns in West Kordofan and a strategically important site in the army's ongoing campaign against the RSF in the resource-rich state. The offensive by the SAF and allied Darfur forces has succeeded in breaking the RSF siege on al-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, and surrounding areas.
The advances have opened up new routes for the army in central and southwest Sudan, paving the way for significant SAF progress in South Kordofan, extending to Babnusa and approaches to North Darfur. This includes an important road linking al-Nuhud, the site of gold mines, and al-Khuwai.
Strategic Shift
The RSF, alongside its alleged allies in the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North led by Abdelaziz Al-Hilu, still holds al-Nuhud and parts of South Kordofan. However, recent defeats in southern and western Sudan could weaken the paramilitary's ability to coopt tribal groups in the region.
The RSF's shift from attack to defence will alter its military composition, which was built on demanding rapid tribal support.
Tribal Dynamics
The RSF's main social and tribal support base is among Arab communities of south and east Darfur, including areas around Nyala and el-Daein. The paramilitary has relied heavily on mobilizing tribes and civilians in areas under its control, particularly when facing attacks from multiple fronts.
Mohiedeen Mohamed, an expert on Sudanese military affairs, noted that while the RSF established alliances with certain tribal groups in Kordofan, these arrangements were driven by military and political necessity rather than longstanding social integration. Several tribal groups have recently defected from the RSF as SAF gains ground.
Humanitarian Impact
The conflict emerged from a power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his former ally Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo after the 2019 downfall of former President Omar al-Bashir. Fighting has resulted in approximately 150,000 deaths and displaced over 14 million of Sudan's 53 million population.
Following SAF's military successes in Khartoum and other areas, fighting has focused on the remote, impoverished but oil-rich provinces of Darfur and Kordofan. The RSF's potential withdrawal from Kordofan could make Darfur the new epicenter of the conflict sooner than expected.
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