Trump-Xi-Putin trilateral meeting at APEC: What to expect

Washington confirmed Trump's attendance at the APEC summit, which will take place from November 18-19. The meeting comes amid significant global turbulence: Russia's war in Ukraine, the US-Israeli war on Iran, and ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Professor Simon Mabon of Lancaster University told Al Jazeera: I think what we'll see is some pretty impressive photo-ops with a lot of really bombastic rhetoric from Trump. However, he noted that the three collectively or unilaterally, are not able to bring about an end to the conflict in Iran or Ukraine.

Nuclear treaty priorities

A top issue for Russia and the US is the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which lapsed in February. The treaty capped US and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals, with Russia currently possessing the largest number of warheads, followed by the US and then China, which is rapidly building up its arsenal.

Trump previously rejected Russia's proposal to extend the treaty, demanding instead a new, improved and modernised deal that includes Beijing. China, however, is reluctant to join an agreement it was not involved in forming. A senior Trump administration official told Reuters this topic will start the conversation but that we do not expect to get any kind of agreement.

Iran war impact

The leaders will discuss the Iran war, which the US and Israel launched on February 28. While full-scale strikes have ceased, the conflict remains in a deadlock. The critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed, affecting oil and gas prices, as one-third of China's crude oil supply transited the strait before the war. Russia has profited from rising energy prices and recent sanctions relief.

Trade tensions

Trade wars and the race to control microchips for artificial intelligence continue to strain US-China relations. Trump imposed a 145 percent tax hike on China last year, while Beijing retaliated with 125 percent levies on US imports. Tensions mounted over China's restrictions on rare earth mineral exports needed for advanced chips. The recent scandal at chip firm Nvidia, where the US alleges Chinese spying on CEO Jensen Huang, has further complicated matters.

Ukraine unlikely on agenda

The Ukraine war is very unlikely to be discussed, despite Kremlin officials suggesting it could be. A Trump administration official confirmed the US president will not bring up Russia's war on Ukraine, noting that Washington is pursuing separate peace talks. China has called the Ukraine war a European issue. Trump has accused Ukraine's President Zelenskyy of not wanting to end the conflict, while Kyiv alleges the US restricted its Starlink satellite connection.

Each side's objectives

For Putin, the meeting provides a platform to project power and sideline Ukraine, giving him a first among equals position to influence Europe's security architecture. China seeks resolution to the Iran war, which impacts its energy supplies, while avoiding being pulled into a nuclear treaty. Trump's priority is including both China and Russia in a new nuclear treaty and projecting diplomatic influence, though his recent midterm election defeat may undermine his leverage.

Russian parliament's foreign affairs committee chairman Pyotr Tolstoy suggested the meeting could lead to a new Yalta, referencing the 1945 conference that divided Germany and established the UN. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the trilateral meeting extremely significant but noted any agreements cannot be imposed on other nations.