Ukraine, Russia race to build military satellite networks as war rages on

The Obria Nano satellite, launched by Ukrainian company Himera and Danish manufacturer GomSpace, represents Ukraine's first step toward establishing sovereign satellite communications capabilities. This development comes as Kyiv seeks alternatives to its heavy reliance on SpaceX's Starlink system, which has experienced disruptions affecting military operations along the front line.

In mid-October, Ukraine signed agreements with Finnish companies Nokia and ICEYE to explore developing a military satellite network. These efforts follow recent speed limitations imposed on Starlink and its military component Starshield, which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as causing 'significant disruptions' to Ukrainian military communications.

Starlink dependency concerns

Since 2022, Ukraine has maintained a complex relationship with Elon Musk, whose Starlink has been crucial for military communications, hospitals, and government agencies. However, Musk's shifting positions have created vulnerabilities – most notably when he refused to activate Starlink coverage in Russian-occupied areas during Ukraine's 2022 counteroffensive.

The most recent disruption occurred in October when Starlink and Starshield limited speeds for Ukrainian drones, preventing those moving faster than 60km/h from maintaining signal connections to their targets. Musk later admitted he personally authorized this slowdown after initially blaming the Pentagon.

Russian satellite ambitions

Russia has also pursued its own military satellite network through the Rassvet (Dawn) constellation, though with limited success. The system uses Qianfan satellites manufactured in China and aims to have 900 satellites in orbit by 2035. However, more than a third of these satellites have reportedly failed to reach sustainable operational altitudes, with two satellites lost in early November.

President Vladimir Putin has publicly praised Musk as a 'real genius' while discussing Russia's satellite efforts, suggesting an attempt to influence the tech billionaire. Despite these efforts, Russia's satellite program has faced significant technical challenges and reliability issues.

Future alternatives

Ukraine has explored alternatives to Starlink, including US-based Iridium and OneWeb systems. However, these options present limitations – OneWeb is not authorized for military drone strikes, and its terminals are significantly more expensive ($9,000 versus $500 for Starlink) while providing fewer satellites in view at any given time.

According to analyst Pavel Luzin, Ukraine has several options: developing expensive geosynchronous satellites with 20-year lifespans, creating hundreds of cheaper low-orbit satellites that require frequent replacement, or using stratospheric drones as 'quasi-satellites.' He also suggested that AI-driven drones that can recognize targets independently could reduce satellite dependence, as could ballistic missiles that don't require satellite connections.

Despite these alternatives, Luzin noted that Ukraine may not need to develop its own satellite system, as SpaceX has clear business interests in maintaining Ukrainian operations. 'Such decisions are made with all calculations considered, not because Starlink – that depends on current political trends in Washington – needs to be replaced with an alternative,' he said.