Trump keeps signaling an end to Iran war, but expert warns a crucial piece of his strategy is missing

President Donald Trump declared Thursday that the United States no longer needs a deal with Iran, abruptly shifting his diplomatic message just three days after expressing optimism about negotiations and directing Vice President JD Vance to focus on domestic issues instead.

"We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "We've got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we've got their Strait!" Trump's latest declaration came just one day after he proclaimed victory over Iran during a Veterans Day ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery, while acknowledging that the conflict had not yet formally ended.

"We won," Trump said Wednesday. "It's just a question of when we end it. I want to make sure we have a total victory, not a 93 percent victory." The president also thanked veterans "working to ensure the world's number one sponsor of state terrorism, the Islamic Republic of Iran, will never have a nuclear weapon."

Military Pressure and Economic Blockade

An administration official defended Trump's strategy, arguing that the United States has substantial leverage over Iran through its naval blockade and continued military pressure. "The United States is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian economy collapsing," a U.S. official told Fox News Digital.

"The President has been clear that the greatest naval blockade in history, Operation Economic Outcast, and the new Operation Iron Gate will continue with full effect," the official added. "President Trump holds all the cards, will do what is best for the United States, and will make sure that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon."

Mixed Signals on Diplomacy

Trump's declaration raises questions about the future of U.S.-Iran negotiations, including whether diplomatic efforts will continue through other administration officials as Washington maintains its military and economic pressure on Tehran. Trump has suggested on at least a dozen occasions since February that Iran wanted to negotiate or that an agreement could be reached soon.

Ludovic Hood, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said the administration's combination of economic coercion, military force and regional partnerships is sensible, but warned that a crucial diplomatic component remains underdeveloped. "What's lacking is disciplined diplomacy to complement the economic squeeze and possible airstrikes," Hood told Fox News Digital. "Our Gulf partners are singing from different hymn sheets and we need to draw European partners in more meaningfully."

Evolution of Trump's Position

Trump's optimistic assessments began before U.S. military operations against Iran commenced. On Feb. 13, he suggested Tehran could avoid an attack by accepting Washington's terms. After military operations began, he increasingly emphasized Iran's weakened capabilities and the prospect of ending the conflict.

The administration agreed to a ceasefire in April and continued pursuing a diplomatic settlement, but subsequent military actions and disagreements over Iran's nuclear program and regional shipping have left the broader conflict unresolved. During an unscheduled appearance in the White House briefing room Monday, Trump said, "Iran, militarily, is effectively over," while warning that U.S. forces remained "locked and loaded" should circumstances change.

Hood defended the president's willingness to maintain military pressure. "Bluster, bluffing and brinkmanship are inherent in the public dimension of negotiations like this; Trump does it, Rubio does it, and senior figures in Tehran do it," he said. "Strategic patience is essential in this standoff, which has essentially been 40 years in the making."