Will Trump’s lame duck presidency push him further beyond constraints of the law?
Donald Trump enters an uncertain endgame after a humiliating midterm election defeat, with analysts predicting he will become 'weirder and more dangerous' in his final two years.
Ten years after his stunning victory, an unlikely president is serving an unlikely second term. But in the wake of a humiliating vote of no confidence in last week's midterm elections, Donald Trump now enters an endgame wracked with uncertainty. Democrats' 13 percentage point victory was the second biggest of any midterm election since 1942, with the party conquering Republican bastions in Kansas, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas.
Causes of Republican Rout
The causes of the Republican defeat were clear: an eight-month war in Iran that sent fuel prices soaring, persistent cost of living pressures, and a backlash against masked immigration raids that turned deadly in Minneapolis. The 80-year-old president's response has swung wildly between conciliation, aggression and farce.
Extreme Appointments
Trump has appointed immigration hardliner Stephen Miller as White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles whose more measured approach had been seen as a potential restraint on Trump's impulses. Miller has championed expansive presidential power, branded the Democratic party a 'domestic extremist organisation', and advocated suspending habeas corpus to speed deportations.
Like any wannabe autocrat, you end up in the figurative bunker at the end of the regime with the most hardcore loyalists, which tend to be the people who are willing to contort themselves into whatever shape the leader wants.
Constitutional Crisis Fears
Miles Taylor, a former chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security during Trump's first term, expressed fears about potential constitutional crises. He warned that Trump might defy judicial orders, including from the Supreme Court, if he doesn't get his way, with a team willing to justify such actions.
Trump has also engaged in increasingly wayward rhetoric, including ruminations about men's posteriors, speeches punctuated by strange guttural sounds, and a lengthy social media post about comedian Bill Maher.
Foreign Policy Uncertainty
Presidents approaching the end of their terms often turn to diplomacy to burnish their legacies, but Trump's foreign policy remains unpredictable. Taylor warned that allies should expect 'very, very bad' times ahead, while adversaries might find these 'the luckiest two years you're ever going to get' regarding potential inaction on Ukraine and Taiwan.
Republican Loyalty
Despite historic losses, there is little sign of Republican revolt against Trump. The party killed an attempt to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and elected Jim Jordan, a pugnacious Trump ally, as minority leader. Most surviving Republicans are from safe red districts and staunchly pro-Trump, suggesting more MAGA influence rather than less.
Possible Compromise?
Some believe Trump's ideological fluidity might lead to compromises with Democrats. Research fellow Bill Whalen suggested Trump might turn out to be more like a moderate Democrat, similar to Arnold Schwarzenegger's second term as California governor. Others, like former House speaker Newt Gingrich, predict an aggressive counterattack rather than a chastened administration winding down.
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