Southeast Asian leaders to meet as Trump visit highlights trade disruption
Southeast Asian leaders are gathering in Manila as US President Donald Trump’s Asia Pacific trip highlights the disruption of trade and traditional alliances. Trump is scheduled to meet Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr in Manila on Tuesday before heading to the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China.
Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are gathering in Manila, the Philippines, for a series of multilateral and bilateral meetings running from Sunday until Tuesday. The summit is taking place as US President Donald Trump embarks on an Asia Pacific trip that will focus attention on his upending of trade and traditional alliances.
Trump is scheduled to meet Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr during a brief stop in Manila on Tuesday, before heading to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China. It will be the first time that Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin meet for trilateral talks, the White House has confirmed.
New tariffs and trade probes
Trump’s visit to Southeast Asia – his second since his return to the White House after his attendance at the 2025 ASEAN summit in Malaysia – comes after his administration announced new tariffs on dozens of trade partners, including most of the region’s economies, in July.
The Trump administration announced duties of between 10 and 12.5 percent after the US Supreme Court struck down his steeper 'reciprocal' tariffs in February. The Office of the US Trade Representative said it was imposing the tariffs on 60 trade partners over their alleged failure to clamp down on forced labour.
The Trump administration is also conducting trade probes over alleged national security and 'excess' manufacturing concerns that could result in yet more tariffs for Southeast Asian trade partners.
ASEAN has had mixed success in navigating US tariffs. Overall exports are up. But this is primarily driven by shipments of electronics which are largely exempt from tariffs.
Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, said that Southeast Asian countries cannot guarantee that their luck will continue. She noted that these shipments are also strongly tied to the AI buildout, and if that falters, ASEAN will feel it.
ASEAN digital economy framework
While ASEAN leaders have provided few details about the summit agenda, trade is likely to be among the main topics of discussion. For a bloc that often faces accusations of being a talking shop, one of the most anticipated tangible outcomes is the signing of the Digital Economy Framework Agreement.
Initiated in 2023, the framework has been billed as a step towards building an ASEAN digital economy worth $2 trillion by 2030. The agreement aims at easing cross-border data transfers and electronic payments.
So far, the recent tariffs appear to have had a limited impact on competitiveness of ASEAN exports. But this may change in the future, with more sectoral tariffs, in particular, or other measures such as export controls.
Jayant Menon, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Southeast Asian leaders will be concerned about 'what comes next' from Trump on trade. He noted that Trump still retains significant autonomous authority over trade policy despite losing control of both houses, and could double down rather than back off.
Regardless of the tariffs intended by President Donald Trump, ASEAN will continue to muddle through by speaking of the importance of trade and more trade.
Phar Kim Beng, a professor of ASEAN studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia, said Southeast Asian leaders are likely to reiterate calls for increased trade within the region. He noted that whether measured from 1970 or 2025, intraregional trade remains paltry at 23 percent.
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