Metaplanet Cuts 2026 Revenue Target 59%: Is the Bitcoin Playbook Running Dry?

The Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury firm also slashed its operating profit forecast by 74%, to ¥3 billion from ¥11.4 billion. Metaplanet stock fell 4.37% to ¥219 on November 13, reflecting investor concerns about the revised outlook.

Funding Strategy Stalls

The original target assumed Metaplanet could continue raising money at its late-2025 pace to buy more Bitcoin and expand its options-based Bitcoin Income business. However, the plan stalled once mNAV (market value to net asset value) stayed below 1x, meaning new shares would dilute the Bitcoin held per share.

With this funding route narrowed, Metaplanet held back on share sales, causing both Bitcoin purchases and income business volume to fall below plan. The ¥52 billion convertible bond issued in October will not fill the gap, as the company will prioritize share buybacks.

Fourth Quarter Challenges

The revised targets look harsher compared to year-to-date results. Nine-month revenue rose 30.5% to ¥5.9 billion, while operating profit grew 26.5% to about ¥3.5 billion. However, losses on Bitcoin valuation and a third-quarter Bitcoin sale resulted in a ¥27.2 billion net loss.

The new forecast implies only about ¥600 million in fourth-quarter revenue, compared to nearly ¥2 billion per quarter through September. Operating profit already exceeds the ¥3 billion full-year goal, suggesting a fourth-quarter operating loss.

Index Removal Pressure

Metaplanet faces additional pressure on November 30 when MSCI removes it from its Japan Small Cap Index and USA Index. The index provider updated its rules to target companies that behave like investment vehicles, requiring tracking funds to sell their holdings.

While Metaplanet insists its Bitcoin-centered strategy remains unchanged, the growth model relied on selling stock priced above the Bitcoin backing it. A sustained mNAV recovery above 1x would reopen equity funding options, but that prospect remains uncertain.