Coinbase Institutional says Fed rate expectations, not the Binance hack, sank Bitcoin
Bitcoin's recent slide was primarily caused by shifting Federal Reserve interest rate expectations rather than the Binance hack, according to Coinbase Institutional.
The pivot point was the Consumer Price Index report released on November 10, which showed headline consumer prices climbing 0.4% month-over-month and core CPI rising 0.3%. These numbers reshaped bets on Federal Reserve policy, with market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate increase in December climbing above 90% following the report.
Market Response
Bitcoin dropped below $70,000 after the CPI release, falling to levels last seen in mid-August. By November 13, it was trading in a range of roughly $67,770 to $68,500. Leverage made the move more severe, with liquidations of leveraged long positions totaling around $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion during the November 13 decline.
The pivot point was the Consumer Price Index report released on November 10. Headline consumer prices climbed 0.4% month-over-month, while core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3%.
ETF Outflows
Institutional money was heading for the exits as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.44 billion to $1.88 billion in net outflows in early November, adding steady selling pressure on top of the leverage flush. These outflows show that this investor base responds to rising rates and a stronger dollar.
Binance Hack Context
The October 29 Binance hack drained approximately $6.3 billion in assets, including 18,270 BTC. While the incident had brief price implications, Coinbase Institutional's analysis suggests its effect faded, with the broader macro backdrop doing the heavier lifting in Bitcoin's downturn.
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