The dangers of revising Europe's security architecture

European leaders have found compromises in response to many of US President Donald Trump's demands, but were surprised to hear him say that he raised Europe's security framework with Russian officials. "It's going to be a big agreement and it's going to involve more than Ukraine," Trump said after meeting Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev at the White House last week. However, what he meant by "all of Europe" remains unclear.

US envoy Jared Kushner also wrote that Europe and Russia have struggled to establish a sustainable security framework for over 30 years, noting he was looking at a "broader" European architecture before meeting with Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Abu Dhabi.

European Diplomats Push Back

European diplomats immediately pushed back on Washington's approach to secure a peace deal in Ukraine, fearing that a settlement could restore Russia's sphere of influence and undermine NATO. We already have European security architecture in place. NATO and the European Union both have their respective roles. We must make sure Ukraine is integrated into this architecture, said Kaja Kallas, the European Union's foreign policy chief.

Russia's Security Framework Demands

Russia made clear during talks in Abu Dhabi that they were keen to discuss a broader European security framework before tackling the specifics of the war. Russian leaders, including Vladimir Putin, have long alleged that the US and NATO repeatedly violated pledges made in the early 1990s not to expand the alliance into the former Soviet bloc.

Historian Michael Kimmage described Russian discussions about European security architecture as "part of a media propaganda effort that Russia makes to frame the war as it wishes." He noted that while there were even suggestions of Russia becoming a NATO member in the 1990s, Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008, annexation of Crimea in 2014, and full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 changed everything.

Ukraine's Security Concerns

The Trump administration has emphasized maintaining "existing European security institutions," with Kushner indicating that the next round of negotiations would include "our European partners." Kushner and Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Moscow before traveling to Dublin to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Hiski Haukkala, director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, warned against allowing "a diktat from Russia that would result in some kind of neutralization or significant reduction in the military forces of Ukraine going forward," as this would make Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian aggression. He emphasized that Europe is supporting Ukraine "because we are supporting international law and the basic norms of decency and international security when it comes to European security architecture."

Way Forward

Former assistant secretary of state Daniel Fried noted that "Russians know how to negotiate and right now, they are not negotiating." Some experts believe there's no possibility of having a new security architecture with Russia at present due to lack of trust and common vision. Others like Balazs Jarabik argue that Russia is part of the European security architecture whether Europeans like it or not, saying We have to find a modus vivendi to reduce the risk of a horizontal escalation and potentially a bigger European war.

A host of European leaders have rejected Russian demands to discuss Europe's security framework, with Germany looking to host a meeting of the "Coalition of the Willing" to secure funding for Ukraine's defense and reach a unified position regarding future peace talks.