Meta tests a prediction-market app with its own employees
Meta is trialing a forecasting app internally with its employees, using virtual currency rather than real money for predictions.
The Wall Street Journal reports Meta is trialing a forecasting app internally, a project previously described as a play-money platform called Arena. Before anyone else gets a look, the company's own staff are the first ones placing bets on the future.
Arena's design and features
The core concept is familiar. Users forecast how events will turn out, and the market reflects what the crowd collectively thinks will happen. Arena is reportedly designed around virtual currency rather than real money, separating it from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi where users put real stakes on the line.
Meta also reportedly plans to lean on its Llama AI model. Llama would generate event questions for users to forecast and serve up personalized market recommendations. The app is reportedly aimed at users aged 18–34, with Meta anticipating at least 100 million monthly active participants.
Previous attempts and partnerships
This is not Meta's first attempt at crowd forecasting. Arena follows Forecast, an earlier app the company launched around 2020-2021 that was discontinued in 2022 reportedly because of high operational costs. The research findings also indicate Meta is exploring partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi to strengthen Arena's operations.
Nothing has been announced, and an exploration is not a deal.
Strategic approach and challenges
The play-money design is the strategic center of the whole plan. Real-money prediction markets carry regulatory questions and a psychological barrier: many people are curious about forecasting but have no interest in risking cash on it. The research findings frame this as a way to broaden the user base while giving Meta valuable data on user preferences and engagement.
Forecast already failed once on cost grounds, which means Meta has firsthand evidence that running a forecasting platform at scale is expensive. The AI layer adds another variable. Having Llama generate questions could keep the app stocked with fresh markets around the clock, something human-curated platforms struggle to match.
For now, the most concrete fact is the internal test itself. The things worth watching are straightforward. Does Meta confirm a public release date for iOS and Android? Do any partnerships with Polymarket or Kalshi materialize? And can the company keep costs in check this time around?
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