Beijing faces its Russia dilemma amid talk of Xi-Trump-Putin summit

Despite the lack of official confirmation from Beijing, Moscow, or Washington, the potential trilateral summit has already captured global attention. Trump recently told reporters at a Florida airport that he "thinks" one of the meetings planned for APEC will be with Putin and Xi. Chinese and Russian officials have separately acknowledged ongoing communication about possible coordination for such a meeting.

However, the specific agenda for any such meeting remains unclear. Trump avoided mentioning Russia's war in Ukraine when questioned, citing only "Iran" and "denuclearization" as potential topics, while the Chinese Foreign Ministry reported having "no information" on possible discussion points.

Diplomatic Calculations

For Putin, a three-way meeting would represent a significant diplomatic victory following years of isolation due to the Ukraine war. He first proposed the trilateral summit during a call with Trump last month, reportedly seeking discussions on ending the conflict. For the US, such a gathering could present awkward optics as Trump stands alongside America's primary adversaries, though he has already greeted both leaders with red carpets during his second term.

China's Balancing Act

As the potential host, China faces particularly complex challenges. While Beijing and Moscow maintain a close "no limits" partnership declared in early 2022, China does not want to be explicitly associated with Russia's war in Ukraine. This would undermine China's efforts to position itself as a global stability force and could damage its relations with the European Union, which seeks a role in any Ukraine peace talks.

China has quietly supported Russia throughout the Ukraine war by providing crucial markets for energy exports and supplying technology and dual-use goods that could be used for weapons systems. However, Beijing maintains official neutrality on the conflict and refuses to take responsibility for its outcome.

The relationship between Beijing and Moscow remains more of a strategic alignment than a formal alliance, with significant mistrust in certain areas. Russian defense firms have accused Chinese companies of intellectual property theft, while China is concerned about Russia's growing ties with North Korea that reduce Pyongyang's dependence on Beijing.

Global Implications

Analysts suggest China will likely avoid framing any trilateral meeting as three powers making decisions for the rest of the world, as this would undermine its image as a champion of the Global South. Beijing has also shown little interest in nuclear disarmament, the most pressing issue that could realistically be addressed in such a format.

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission recently described China as a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war effort, noting Beijing is converting Moscow's dependence into lasting advantages while avoiding formal alliance obligations. Despite these benefits, strategic distrust between the two powers will continue to limit their cooperation.

Regardless of whether the summit materializes, the discussions around it highlight China's increasingly influential role in global affairs and its delicate balancing act between maintaining its partnership with Russia while managing relations with the United States and Europe.