Beijing faces its Russia dilemma amid talk of Xi-Trump-Putin summit
China has not confirmed a potential trilateral summit between Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in Shenzhen next week.
Chinese officials have only stated they are "in communication" with relevant parties, while a Kremlin representative mentioned ongoing "coordination" work.
Uncertain agenda
The potential topics for such a summit remain unclear. When questioned about possible talking points, US President Trump mentioned only "Iran" and "denuclearization" while avoiding any reference to Russia's war in Ukraine. The Chinese Foreign Ministry similarly reported having "no information" about the substance of potential talks.
Beijing is aware of the potential negative optics of the 'Yalta 2.0' framing, even if this historical comparison is inaccurate and does not reflect current geopolitical dynamics.
Diplomatic calculations
For Russia, such a meeting would represent a significant diplomatic victory following years of isolation since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Putin reportedly proposed the summit during a call with Trump last month, potentially seeking discussions on ending the war. The US faces its own challenges as Trump stands alongside America's primary geopolitical rivals.
China's position is particularly delicate. While maintaining broad alignment with Russia on many issues, Beijing seeks to avoid explicit association with the Ukraine conflict to preserve its image as a global stability force. The Chinese government is also working to balance economic ties with the European Union, which would likely object to Ukraine peace talks excluding Kyiv or Brussels.
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