Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Has One Line Left to Defend. The Last Test Ended in a Rally

Hyperliquid (HYPE) has demonstrated remarkable resilience during the crypto downturn, with its price still up sharply year to date while Bitcoin trades roughly 15% lower. However, this resilience is now being seriously tested as HYPE trades near $72, about 26% below its September 23 all-time high of $97.99.

The daily chart has turned bearish, with HYPE making a lower high on October 30 when a spike following Intercontinental Exchange's (ICE) futures announcement stalled just below the record. The token has now formed its first lower low since the August breakout.

Bearish Technical Indicators

Technical analysis reveals concerning signs. HYPE lost the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $75, which had held as support twice since September. Volume has been shrinking since peaks in April and June, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to around 35, its lowest reading since August.

Positive developments including the ICE futures plan, Upbit and Bithumb listings on November 10, and Binance reopening HYPE withdrawals on November 8 have failed to reverse the downward trend. Two large holders sold approximately $109 million worth of HYPE on October 31, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 20 indicating thin risk appetite.

Strong Fundamentals

On-chain data paints a much stronger picture. According to DefiLlama, Hyperliquid generated $68.68 million in revenue over the past 30 days, all distributed to token holders through buybacks. This equates to roughly $825 million annually, with about 19% coming from USDC reserve yield that doesn't depend on trading activity.

Despite these impressive fundamentals, buybacks have only slowed the selling without stopping the decline. The token's fate now depends on whether it can defend the critical support area between $68 and $70, where the 200-day moving average near $69, the lower band of the ascending channel near $70, and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $68.08 converge.

A daily close below this zone would confirm the breakdown and open the way to the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $61, matching the area where HYPE consolidated in June and July. On the upside, bulls need to reclaim $75 to ease the pressure. Whether high revenue can defend the 200-day average will likely decide if HYPE's trend survives.