Can Netanyahu launch a strike on Iran before he leaves?

Despite losing its majority in last month's parliamentary elections, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government remains in power in a caretaker capacity. This arrangement will continue until a new governing majority is formed – a process that could take months as Israel's opposition struggles to build a coalition.

While politically weakened, Netanyahu is reportedly weighing new military action against Iran, facing opposition from the United States, his own military establishment, and politicians vying to replace him. The question arises whether his caretaker government actually possesses the authority to send Israel back to war and how such a move would be received domestically.

Legal Authority

Officially, Israel's caretaker government maintains the same authority as a regular government. Article 30 of the country's Basic Law states that an interim government continues to carry out the same duties until a new one takes its place. However, Israel's Supreme Court has previously ruled that outgoing governments must avoid irreversible policy moves unless they are urgent – a principle known as the 'duty of restraint'.

In practice, Netanyahu can still initiate military action with approval from his caretaker government, which he could present as 'urgent and in the national interest,' according to Neve Gordon, a professor of international law at Queen Mary University, London. Security issues are generally 'the clearest exception' to a caretaker government's duty of restraint, according to researcher Asher from the Tel Aviv-based Tachlith Institute.

Military Preparations

Israeli media reported that the security cabinet chaired by Netanyahu had ordered the military to step up preparations for an attack on Iran. These directives could lead to activities that might trigger a war, according to public broadcaster KAN. Reports also indicate Netanyahu has been repeatedly calling US President Donald Trump to press for a new military campaign against Iran, with conversations becoming heated on at least one occasion.

However, the US military's Central Command (CENTCOM) later dismissed reports that Washington had told Israel to prepare for potential confrontation, calling them 'mere speculation.' Israeli military establishment reportedly sees no urgent need to attack Iran, an assessment presented to both Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot during a recent briefing.

Political Opposition

The opposition has demanded that Netanyahu avoid any military action unless it is critical. Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman stated the prime minister's caretaker government must not 'make decisions that could drag Israel into war without parliamentary oversight and without the full agreement of all security officials.' Eisenkot echoed this sentiment in a letter to Netanyahu, warning that deploying forces without an immediate threat could have 'devastating consequences for Israeli democracy and public trust in the institutions of government.'

Netanyahu responded by insisting the government makes all decisions based only on 'security considerations.' Analyst Ehab Jabareen noted that such a move would raise the 'political burden of proof,' as Netanyahu would be asking the country to accept consequences that could outlast his government.

Historical Precedent

Israeli caretaker governments have previously launched military action. In May 2021, weeks after his party lost legislative elections, Netanyahu launched an 11-day war in Gaza that killed at least 260 Palestinians and 13 Israelis. Former Prime Ministers Ehud Olmert and Yair Lapid also ordered military action in Gaza while serving in caretaker capacities, with Olmert's 2008 war being particularly deadly, killing about 1,400 Palestinians.

The potential for renewed conflict with Iran comes as the United States has indicated it is doubling down on economic pressure against Iran rather than pursuing large-scale military action. Political scientist Anders Persson noted that Netanyahu would find it easier to undertake a military campaign jointly with the US, but 'the more openly Netanyahu provokes Iran, and the less support he receives from Trump, the harder it will be for him to get away with it – and for the Israeli public to accept it.'