Why is Trump saying ‘no deal necessary’ with Iran as he sidelines JD Vance?

Just hours before Iran claimed it hit the US military's early warning radar system in Bahrain, President Trump declared that 'we don't need a deal with Iran' and instructed Vice President Vance to focus on corruption in Democratic-controlled areas. This shift comes after Republicans lost control of Congress in the midterm elections, with Vance himself blaming Trump's military strikes on Iran for the party's defeat.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that he had asked Vance to focus his 'complete and total attention on the Massive Corruption and Crime taking place in Democrat run Cities and States throughout the U.S.' The president added: 'We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We've got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we've got their Strait!'

Divided administration

The Trump administration appears increasingly divided on the Iran conflict following midterm losses. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated that Washington's economic pressure campaign against Iran is proving effective, making large-scale military operations unnecessary. Trump himself has sent mixed signals, threatening to 'destroy' Iran one week but calling further strikes 'quite unlikely' the next.

Vance's diplomatic efforts

Vance, a known critic of the US-Israeli war on Iran, has led diplomatic efforts including negotiations in Islamabad that secured a June memorandum of understanding with Iran. That agreement quickly collapsed over disagreements regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz. After the midterm losses, Vance publicly questioned whether the war was worth the political and economic costs.

Strait of Hormuz tensions

Despite Trump's claims that Washington controls the Strait of Hormuz, several commercial vessels have been hit by naval mines or Iranian military attacks in the past week. Iran has effectively closed the strait, through which one-fifth of global oil supplies were shipped in peacetime, sending global energy markets into turmoil.

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that the strait will 'never return' to its pre-war status and that there are no 'free waters' there, as the strait runs solely through Iranian and Omani territorial waters. At least 12 tankers have been hit in the past 12 days according to Iran, though US Central Command claims it has assisted over 4,000 ships to cross the waterway.

Diplomatic stalemate

Iran has sent a seven-point proposal for a ceasefire and strait reopening to Washington via Qatari mediators, waiting for an official response. The conditions include ending the US naval blockade, lifting sanctions, releasing frozen funds, and announcing an end to the war. The US has refused these demands without first agreeing on Iran's nuclear program.

Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi of Chatham House commented: 'We are still in a situation which is 'no war, no peace', and it's unlikely to move for the time being. Major strikes are unlikely to happen in the imminent days, but things are likely to shift one way or the other in the next couple of weeks.' Meanwhile, Iran's IRGC adviser Ali Reza Belaili warned that Iran's supreme leader's order to strike enemies 'without geographical limits' will be implemented 'at the appropriate time'.