The real winner in Poland’s constitutional battle is Putin

The dispute has deep roots stretching back to 2015, when the outgoing Civic Platform-controlled parliament attempted to appoint judges to the Constitutional Tribunal for vacancies meant for the incoming parliament. The newly elected conservative Law and Justice government subsequently intensified efforts to pack the Tribunal with party nominees rather than independent judges.

Now back in power, Civic Platform is attempting to install new judges, but President Karol Nawrocki and the Tribunal's leadership, both aligned with Law and Justice, have blocked several appointments. Last month, one newly elected judge ordered the suspension of the Tribunal's president and deputy, leading to police deployment to the building.

Russian Exploitation

Moscow has seized on the confrontation to cast doubt on Poland's institutional legitimacy. On November 3, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev described the intervention as a "coup".

Political Mirror Images

Both main parties have become mirror images of each other. Law and Justice, which previously packed the Tribunal, now accuses the current coalition of acting unlawfully. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has deployed police around the Constitutional Tribunal, presenting himself as an effective leader who gets things done, despite legal concerns raised by some experts.

A photograph of Tusk reading an issue of the philosophical journal Kronos devoted to Carl Schmitt has circulated widely on social media. Schmitt, a theorist of decisionism, famously declared, "Sovereign is he who decides on the exception."

Public Fatigue

While Law and Justice's politicization of the Tribunal sparked protests a decade ago, Poles are unlikely to take to the streets in large numbers this time. The public is tired of the political tug-of-war, as both blocs demonstrate hypocrisy when invoking the rule of law, while ignoring citizens' primary concerns: the cost of living and national security amid Russia's war in neighboring Ukraine.

The geopolitical context has drastically changed since the previous protests, with Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine and its hybrid warfare aimed at weakening Poland's position on the global stage. The constitutional battle comes at a critical time for Poland's security and international standing.