Progressives are still so pessimistic, but why? The populist right can and will be defeated | Andy Beckett

Populist right-wing leaders and candidates have suffered election defeats across the globe, from Brazil to Hungary and the United States, in contests this year.

The defeats of figures like Flávio Bolsonaro, Viktor Orbán and Donald Trump's allies suggest the right's strength has been overestimated.

Analysts argue this is due to the right's inability to sustain long-term power, while the left risks becoming overly cautious in response.

Defeats across the West

The global populist right has faced a series of setbacks, with incumbents and insurgents alike being beaten, often by big margins.

Even in Mississippi, a reliably conservative state, right-wing candidates have been rejected.

The movement's strength appears to have been overestimated, with its icons like Donald Trump and Nigel Farage only achieving a year or two of decisive political momentum at a time.

Progressive pessimism

Despite these defeats, many liberals and leftists remain pessimistic, absorbing the good news with wonderment before a creeping conviction sets in that the right's supremacy will inevitably return.

This pattern has repeated itself after events like the 2016 Brexit referendum and Donald Trump's 2024 presidential victory.

Trump's win, achieved with a popular vote lead of just 1.5 points and an electoral share below 50%, was seen as signalling a profound shift to the right.

The midterms have not made this movement disappear, but they are the latest evidence that its strength has been overestimated.

The myth of hegemony

The belief that the right has established a new era of dominance is a misapplication of the concept of hegemony, as understood by the Italian thinker Antonio Gramsci.

Unlike the right's last two hegemonic leaders, Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, modern conservatism has not come up with a potent formula.

Its current icons are unable to shed their deep unpopularity, even when they achieve a year or two of decisive political momentum.

Scapegoating migrants and minorities can be an effective campaign strategy, but it does not solve a country's cost of living problems.

Left-wing caution

The modern overestimation of the right also has consequences for left-leaning governments, making them too cautious.

This can lead them to believe they are impostors who will soon be replaced by society's natural rightwing rulers.

Some left-wing politicians, like Andy Burnham, have largely avoided this psychological trap, clearly relishing being prime minister.

However, a deference towards the populist right and its worldview can still be discerned in some of their policies, such as on immigration and prisons.

This deference often stems from the right's fear-mongering about modern life, its exaggerations about migrant invasions and the extent of crime.