World is now in ‘age of electricity’, energy agency chief says at Cop31

The world has left behind the age of coal, oil and gas and is now firmly in "the age of electricity", according to Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). More than twice as much electricity generation will be added to the global economy in the next decade compared to the last, as countries seek to secure energy supplies against fossil fuel price volatility and supply shocks.

Transport is being electrified at an unprecedented rate, with electric car sales outside China rising by 60% in the last nine months. The growth of AI datacentres and increasing air conditioning use due to intensifying heatwaves are also driving electricity demand, Birol noted at the Cop31 UN climate summit in Turkey.

Global Energy Transformation

Governments from 185 countries are meeting in Antalya for the annual climate talks, where the shift to electrification is a key topic. A resolution to derive 35% of final energy worldwide from electricity by 2035 is being considered, which could be crucial for achieving mid-century decarbonization targets.

Electrification Drivers

Electricity currently fulfills about a quarter of global energy needs while three-quarters comes from fossil fuels. The IEA projects that renewable electricity generation will accelerate rapidly in coming decades. Electrification improves efficiency because fossil fuels waste most energy as heat, whereas electrified activities require only about half the energy.

Birol identified three major drivers for electrification: AI and datacentres, transportation electrification, and air conditioning growth. While 90% of US households have air conditioning, fewer than 20% in India and about 5% in Nigeria have access. As climate effects intensify and incomes rise, air conditioner adoption is growing explosively.

Policy Challenges

Most countries support the electrification goal, which would send a clear signal to markets about the future of energy. However, some governments including Saudi Arabia and Russia are reportedly opposed, and the consensus-based decision-making process means a small number of countries could block the resolution.

Despite potential political obstacles, Birol emphasized that electrification progress will continue due to powerful drivers. He placed the blame for high UK electricity prices squarely on reliance on imported gas, stating that building more renewable electricity domestically is the solution, not importing more gas.

Five years ago, only 5% of cars sold were electric; this year, about one-third are expected to be electric, with electric trucks emerging. This trend will displace significant oil consumption. If the electrification pledge is adopted, it could lead to a more secure, affordable, and livable planet, Birol concluded.