Did Indonesia’s vice-president just resign because he didn’t have a high school diploma?

The resignation of Gibran Rakabuming Raka marks a significant political development in Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy. The 39-year-old vice-president stepped down on Wednesday evening after meeting President Prabowo Subianto and offering his resignation in response to a court ruling.

The court, in a ruling last month, found there was “no convincing evidence” that Gibran possessed a high school diploma, certificate or degree from abroad. While the court could not annul the results of the 2024 election that saw him elected, the ruling highlighted a fundamental eligibility issue.

Gibran had attended Orchid Park secondary school in Singapore and UTS Insearch in Australia, before earning a bachelor’s degree through the Management Development Institute of Singapore. However, these credentials were not sufficient to satisfy the constitutional court or quiet his critics.

The crisis is part of a broader deterioration in the relationship between President Prabowo and his predecessor, Joko Widodo. In 2019, Jokowi guided his eldest son, Gibran, onto Prabowo’s presidential ticket to leverage the “Jokowi effect” and secure a victory in the 2024 election.

The alliance has always been tenuous, and analysts had predicted a breakdown. Last week, tensions escalated further with allegations that Prabowo’s chief of staff, Listyo Sigit Prabowo, had wiretapped the president’s phone. Indonesian police are now investigating treason charges against four suspects, including Listyo.

Gibran’s political career has been controversial from the start. He showed little interest in politics until running for mayor of Solo in 2019. He also faced an age limit issue, which was circumvented by a last-minute exception created by the constitutional court, with its chief justice at the time being Gibran’s uncle, Anwar Usman.

The events will now allow President Prabowo to clear any Jokowi loyalists from his inner circle and consolidate power around his Gerindra party. However, this concentration of power carries risks. President Prabowo’s popularity has plummeted to 44.5% this October, down from 81.2% in November last year.

Facing potential street protests, economic turbulence, and dissatisfaction with policies like his free meals program, Prabowo has multiple challenges ahead. Political analyst Kennedy Muslim warns that if his popularity continues to fall, coalition partners will start hedging for the 2029 election behind his back.

In the short term, the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), Indonesia’s top legislative body, will choose a new vice-president from two names the president nominates, within 60 days of the vacancy. The situation remains fluid, with the political landscape in Indonesia continuing to shift rapidly.