Climate science says 1.5C is dead. No one wants to bury it.

The 1.5C target has become a totemic goal for climate diplomacy, even as scientists and the U.N. acknowledge it's no longer within reach. At COP31, leaders are struggling to reconcile this reality with their political commitments to limit global warming.

The disconnect is evident in the lack of explicit endorsements for key initiatives like the electrification pledge, which has only garnered a handful of supporters despite being central to the conference's agenda.

Political challenges

The EU faces particular pressure at COP31, with a populist surge in next year's elections threatening to undermine its climate leadership. Diplomats are increasingly focused on Brazil's political landscape, where the election outcome could significantly impact global climate efforts.