Bitcoin Has Fallen Below What Recent Buyers Paid 14 Times Since 2016. How Often Did BTC Recover Within 2 Weeks? - 24/7 Wall St.
Bitcoin has fallen below the average price paid by recent buyers for the 14th time since 2016, trading at $71,304, 5.8% below the $75,700 short-term holder cost basis.
Bitcoin has dipped below the average price that recent buyers paid 14 times since 2016, with most of these dips being short-lived. According to analysts from Bitfinex, Bitcoin has been below $75,700, the short-term holder cost basis, for four consecutive days as of November 11, 2026.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $71,304, representing a 5.8% drop below this critical level. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has fallen 3.9%, 8.4% over the last 14 days, and 14.2% in the past month.
CryptoQuant's indicators paint a bearish picture, with the Bitcoin Bull Score standing at 0. The key question now is whether Bitcoin can rise above its short-term holder cost basis within two weeks, as it has done after most previous dips.
Historical Recovery Pattern
According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin recovered above recent buyers' cost within two weeks in 11 of 14 occurrences, or 78.6% of the time. Based on this pattern, Bitcoin has until November 22 to climb back above $75,700. The cost basis represents the average price paid for coins purchased in recent months.
When Bitcoin drops below this level, it typically signals a washout. The average recent buyer is at a loss, prompting anxious sellers to exit.
However, the same buyers could also hinder a recovery. Those holding onto losing investments often sell as soon as they break even, creating resistance around the $75,700 mark.
Technical Indicators
Several moving averages are positioned above the current price. Bitcoin is 2.5% below its 200-day average of $73,125 and 3.3% below its lowest close in the past 30 days ($73,721 on November 10). Beyond $75,700, the 20-day average stands at $77,736, while the 50-day average is $81,140.
The Bitfinex article doesn't specify the three instances where Bitcoin didn't recover within two weeks, which weakens the analysis since these represent the only cases of actual failed recoveries.
Market Conditions
This market appears more comparable to a prolonged downturn scenario. Bitcoin is down 18.6% this year and 29.8% over the past year, trading at 43.4% below its all-time high of $126,080 recorded on October 6, 2025.
CryptoQuant's demand estimate shows a balance of -348,000 BTC over the last 30 days, indicating sellers have released more Bitcoin than buyers have absorbed. While spot demand is starting to improve, perpetual futures contracts continue to weigh down the market.
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