Impeachment: How it works and why Trump should be worried

Pete Hegseth, US President Donald Trump's secretary of war, described the failed efforts to impeach him this week as "farce" and "sabotage". The case, built on an accusation that Hegseth waged war on Iran without proper congressional approval, always looked a long shot. However, many observers believe it could be the first in a wave of impeachment attempts, possibly headlined by a third attempt to impeach Trump.

Impeachment Process Explained

In the US, impeachment is a process that allows the legislature to bring charges against an elected figure, such as a judge or president. These are not criminal charges but can result in removal from office. For federal impeachment, once a case is raised in the House of Representatives, it must be heard in a Senate trial with cross-examination. A conviction requires a two-thirds majority, which is difficult given the partisan nature of US politics.

The process is simple to introduce and, once started, the case is heard within 48 hours, as was the case with Hegseth. Only eight people, all judges, have been impeached since the first case concluded in 1799, making the odds of impeaching a high-level politician long.

Political Weapon or Constitutional Tool?

"Using impeachment threats as a signaling device is a fairly old tactic, but it has certainly become more common in the Trump-[Joe] Biden era," said Frank O Bowman III, a law professor at the University of Missouri and author of a forthcoming book on impeachment and Donald Trump. However, Keith Whittington, a Yale Law School professor and impeachment expert, noted that Congress has taken an extremely partisan approach to impeachment, which has doomed any possibility of conviction and removal.

Third Trump Impeachment Possible

With Democrats controlling both houses of Congress after midterm results, there is a greater chance that President Trump could be impeached for an unprecedented third time. He was acquitted on "charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress" in 2020 and then on "incitement of insurrection" in 2021. Bowman believes impeachment has been "significantly devalued" in the public mind after these failed attempts.

Democrats should not start out their control of the House by rushing off to impeach Trump because it would detract from what they need to be doing, Bowman advised. "That is demonstrating to the public that, having regained control of the legislature, they're at least going to try to do things which are of practical importance to the average person." Whittington suggested the best strategy would be close negotiations with Republican senators to discover if there are any grounds that might peel off the needed votes.

Targeting Trump's Allies

The Hegseth case shows an appetite for impeachment against members of Trump's cabinet. Resolutions have already been filed against Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Education Secretary Linda McMahon, and Attorney General Todd Blanche could also be a target. "The Democrats will face a tremendous amount of pressure from their own base to consider impeachments," Whittington said.

Bowman suggested that with getting the votes to impeach Trump perhaps tougher due to his "cult of personality" within the Republican party, picking off his closest allies may be in play. "You could eliminate cabinet officers, as a means of making a point to the administration, that: 'OK, we're not going to come after the big man himself, but if the rest of you minions insist on doing bad stuff, we will take you out.'"

Why Impeachments Often Fail

The two-thirds majority rule makes convictions difficult, as neither party has enjoyed such a majority since the mid-1960s. However, Whittington noted that a conviction is not the only way to judge the success of an impeachment. Often the impeachment threat itself is sufficient to encourage an officer mired in scandal to resign, so that an actual conviction at trial is not necessary. Impeachment trials are more rare than they might otherwise be simply because impeachment threats are often successful, though some officers are willing to ride an impeachment out and take their chances at trial.