‘No war, no peace’: Can Iran break the deadlock with the US?
Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has told Al Jazeera that Tehran is determined to move beyond a state of 'no war and no peace' with the United States, while maintaining control over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
As the United States-Iran war drags on and talks remain stalled, Tehran continues to assert control over which vessels may pass through the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks on tankers taking 'unauthorised' routes have disrupted shipping. Ghalibaf says Tehran remains open to a deal with the US to agree a ceasefire and the reopening of the strait, and has been waiting for Washington to respond to its terms for this to happen.
The ball is now in the American court.
Iran's Seven Conditions
Tehran has laid down seven conditions before it will agree to a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, then restart peace talks through a Qatari mediator. They include the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, sanctions relief, releasing frozen Iranian funds, ending hostilities on all fronts and formally declaring the war over.
Ghalibaf said these conditions had already formed part of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) reached with the US in Islamabad in June and must be implemented before Iran will re-enter negotiations with the US.
US Response
Faced with the prospect of restarting an unpopular war or making concessions to Iran, experts say US President Donald Trump has for now chosen to ratchet up economic pressure. Washington has tightened sanctions, maintained its blockade on Iranian ports and announced an operation that Trump says will cut off overland routes Iran uses to transport advanced weapons and technology.
Trump's advisers are reportedly divided over what to do next. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has argued that the economic pressure campaign is working, while US Vice President JD Vance has pushed for a negotiated deal, according to Axios.
Fragile Stalemate
For now, full-scale fighting remains on hold, but a formal peace deal is still out of reach, with a fragile stalemate that may not hold for long, experts say.
The US midterm elections last week could affect Trump's calculations. When the new Congress takes office in January, Democrats could use their newfound control over spending to make it harder for the administration to sustain military operations.
Strategic Leverage
Iran's main source of leverage in the standoff is the Strait of Hormuz. By seeking to dictate which ships can pass and which routes they can take, Tehran can raise the cost of the stalemate for Washington and its Gulf partners. Ghalibaf told Al Jazeera the waterway would 'never return' to its pre-war status.
That leverage was on display last weekend, when shipping slowed sharply following attacks on tankers. Just five commodity vessels crossed on Saturday, November 7, while trade intelligence firm Kpler recorded none on Sunday, November 8. That compares with 31 crossings over the previous weekend.
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