Europe views US with ‘much less horror’ after Trump’s midterms defeat
Europeans are looking at the United States with 'much less horror' following the Democratic Party's midterm victory, though experts warn against exaggerating the significance for transatlantic relations.
During the campaign for the US midterm elections, neither Democrats nor Republicans focused much on Europe-related issues. Trump's handling of the Ukraine war, approach to Greenland, and aggressive posture toward the EU were notably absent from the agenda.
Yet while the Democratic victory could produce a Congress more favorable to Europe, experts do not anticipate significant changes in US foreign policy in several key areas. The transatlantic relationship has been gradually eroding for years, a trend that predates Trump's presidency.
Eroding consensus
For decades, the transatlantic relationship was built on mutual assumptions: Washington needed a free, prosperous and secure Europe, while European governments relied on American security guarantees. This consensus has gradually eroded, driven by a loss of popular support for global engagement on both sides of the Atlantic.
The pattern began under Barack Obama, whose administration started a strategic reorientation towards Asia due to perceived security threats from the region. This has become a rare area of agreement across the political divide, with both parties supporting Europeans taking greater responsibility for their own security.
Limited checks
A Democratic-controlled Congress will have more power over federal spending, legislation and congressional oversight to challenge some of Trump's decisions. However, the president would retain considerable authority over foreign policy, limiting the potential for significant shifts.
With the Iran war pushing up global energy prices, there is no easy way out. Trump could either cut a deal and declare victory, potentially leaving Iran with leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, or resume military action – both scenarios leaving European allies with a cost of living crisis driving protests across the continent.
In Ukraine, the new Democrat-dominated Congress may favor greater support for Kyiv, but Ukrainian officials are anxious about the two-month window before the new Congress takes office in January, fearing Trump could use this period to pursue further talks with Putin.
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