Nebius plans $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027 capex, leaning on customer prepayments
Nebius Group announced plans to spend $40 billion to $45 billion on capital expenditures in 2027, with customers increasingly funding the expansion through prepayments.
The AI cloud infrastructure provider laid out the forecast in its Q3 2026 shareholder letter, issued on November 12, 2026. This represents a significant increase from its 2026 capex of approximately $27 billion, up from a previous estimate of $20 billion to $25 billion.
Prepayment Strategy
What makes Nebius's plan stand out is how it's funding the expansion. The company reports $10 billion in prepayments was committed in 2026, projecting that figure will rise to $17 billion to $20 billion in 2027. The trend accelerated during 2026, with prepayments covering more than 100% of associated contract-related capex in Q3, compared to 50-60% in Q2.
The concentration risk deserves equal attention. With a single Microsoft deal accounting for approximately $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion of more than $40 billion in total commitments, a meaningful share of Nebius's backlog depends on one customer.
Growth Outlook
Nebius expects 2027 sales of $12 billion to $13 billion, nearly a fourfold increase over 2026 projections. The company reported Q3 2026 revenue of $981 million, representing 571% year-over-year growth. Its overall commitments now exceed $40 billion, including a major deal with Microsoft worth $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion.
Demand continues to strengthen, with new contract value signed since Q3 2026 surpassing $12 billion. Nebius is targeting pre-tax breakeven by Q4 2027 while expanding its capacity by over 1 GW next year.
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