Bitcoin weakness erases September's bullish signal

Bitcoin BTC $73,512.58 dropped below a key technical level, reversing a September signal that had convinced analysts a new bull run had begun. The price of the largest cryptocurrency fell below its 50-week simple moving average, recently trading at $73,400, which is a discount to its 50-week SMA of $75,153.

Failed Breakout Pattern

This marks a failed breakout, a pattern technical analysts often take to represent renewed seller dominance in the market. In September, prices convincingly topped the 50-week average, prompting several analysts, including Galaxy Digital's research head Alex Thorn, to call it evidence of the start of a new bull run.

Market Conditions

The bearish technical signal comes alongside large outflows from spot ETFs that have highlighted weak institutional demand. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index briefly topped 103, the highest since March 2025, making bitcoin and the wider crypto market less attractive.

Some observers remain optimistic, suggesting the dollar's rally may be ending as markets have priced in a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase for December. "We think much of that hawkishness is already reflected in prices, leaving the balance of risk tilted toward profit-taking on dollar longs," said Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group.

Future Catalysts

Kruger noted that Fed commentary and Friday's U.S. producer price inflation report are the next tests for this view. The conflict with Iran remains a swing factor through the price of oil, where renewed supply pressure could keep inflation concerns elevated.

Meanwhile, some observers worry that MSCI's exclusion of Strategy (MSTR) from its indexes could hamper the company's ability to raise money for its bitcoin purchases. However, analysts at Marex suggest much of the bad news may already be priced in, as the company still holds 850,364 BTC and has reported no Bitcoin sales.