Bitcoin Bottom or Deeper Correction? The Data Points Both Ways
Bitcoin price has slid 8.55% over the past week to $73,752, amid an AI stock sell-off and rising rate-hike bets that have hit risk assets.
The slide has triggered bearish signals across the market, with analysts divided on whether this marks a bottom or the beginning of a deeper correction. CryptoQuant's Analyst Consensus Index dropped from -1.0σ to -1.8σ in just 7 days, reflecting growing pessimism.
Several factors contributed to the decline, including profit-taking, a hawkish Federal Reserve, the Binance hack, and the recent midterms. Hotter-than-expected October inflation data on November 10 further deepened the drop.
Evidence for a Bottom
Some historical data suggests Bitcoin may be approaching a bottom. CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score has collapsed to 0 from 90 on October 13, with a similar decline in April 2025 preceding a market bottom within two months.
Apparent demand has fallen by 284,000 BTC in 30 days, which previously marked local bottoms in March 2025 and June to July 2026. Glassnode also notes that buy orders on Binance and Coinbase have outweighed sell orders every hour since November 5.
Risks of Deeper Correction
The case for a bottom weakens when examining demand metrics. US buyers are holding back, with CryptoQuant's Coinbase Premium Index negative for 30 days. Glassnode shows the deepest discount since February.
Fresh cash is leaving the market, as stablecoin supply fell $14.2 billion in 30 days—the fastest drop since June 2022. Only about 35% of short-term holder coins are currently in profit, with CryptoQuant's trader margin at −6%.
Critical Levels Ahead
Bitcoin sits between key technical levels that could determine its next direction. Glassnode's short-term holder cost basis at $75,600 and CryptoQuant's 365-day average at $76,400 represent immediate resistance.
CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin must reclaim the 365-day line to restore the bullish setup. Below, the focus shifts to the 200-day moving average at $73.2K, which separates a shallow correction from a deeper one.
Glassnode marks a floor just under that line at $73,000. A sustained break below it would point to a longer consolidation, while a close below the June low of $58,500 would undo the trend reversal that began in August.
Related
