Where the US's war with Iran stands after the midterms
US President Donald Trump says the war with Iran is effectively over, but neither side has declared a full ceasefire.
US President Donald Trump has declared the war with Iran to be effectively over in a military sense. His Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, echoed this sentiment, stating there is no need for major combat operations because economic pressure and negotiations are proving effective.
However, Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, has denied that any negotiations are taking place. He claims that all American claims about continued talks are merely aimed at easing economic pressures and reducing oil prices.
All American claims about the continuation of negotiations with Iran are aimed at easing economic pressures and reducing oil prices.
Virtual ceasefire
Neither side has claimed the conflict is concluded in every sense. Ian Kelly, a former US ambassador and professor at Northwestern University, describes the current situation as a "virtual ceasefire" with significant deescalation but unresolved central issues.
The central issue remains the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Kelly notes that Iran wants the United States to withdraw its massive strike forces from the Gulf, but this will not happen until Iran agrees to open the vital shipping lane.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping lane between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Iran's attacks on commercial ships in the strait have led to higher oil prices and economic impacts affecting living costs globally.
Political pressure
The US midterm election results, which will see the Democrats take control of the House and Senate next year, are adding pressure to the situation. Kelly believes Iran is in a wait-and-see moment to see if Congress will cut off or severely limit funding for the war.
Trump and his party need the war to end for political reasons, as well as strategic ones. Kelly argues that the war is a real sticking point for Republicans as they look toward the 2028 election.
A major contributing factor to the Republican defeat was how Trump has not followed through on some of his 2024 promises, including his pledge to end "no more forever wars." Kelly suggests that starting this war without an exit strategy has weakened the Republican Party.
As long as the war is not resolved, it's going to be a real sticking point for the Republicans as they look at [the election in] 2028. They have to wrap it up before then.
Economic leverage and global summit
The US administration claims it is happy with a status quo of containment through land and sea blockades. However, Kelly believes the authority of Trump and his party will be further diminished if the US cannot achieve concrete progress on its main goals: gaining full control of the Strait of Hormuz and forcing Iran to give up its enriched uranium.
Iran's limitation in the conflict is economic rather than military, according to Ali Mohammadi, an expert in Iranian affairs. Continuing the war has a significant impact on Iran's economy, making the strait a key source of leverage for Tehran in any future negotiations.
Kelly expects the economic strain of the war to subside only if a genuine agreement restores markets' confidence that tankers will not be shot at again. The situation is set to be a hot topic at this month's APEC summit in Shenzhen, where Trump is reportedly set to meet Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
A G20 summit in Miami follows the APEC meeting in December. While the impasse between Iran and the US shows little sign of being broken, the fighting has calmed for now. What happens in the coming weeks in the meeting rooms of Shenzhen and Miami currently looks more critical to finding a solution than what happens on Iranian territory or waterways.
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