Dan Ives values Nvidia at $300 a share with Jensen Huang, $225 without him

The tech analyst puts a price on key-person risk as leadership scrutiny around Nvidia's CEO intensifies. Dan Ives has put a price on Jensen Huang. With Huang running Nvidia, the tech analyst says the stock is worth $300 a share. Without him, that figure falls to $225.

Ives, of Yorkville Ives & Co., maintains an Outperform rating on Nvidia (NVDA). His $300 price target depends on Huang staying in charge. If Huang were to leave, Ives indicated the shares could fall by 25-30%, putting the stock at roughly $225 under his framework.

Leadership uncertainty

The warning arrives as Nvidia faces scrutiny over its leadership tied to a personal scandal involving Huang. The situation has raised questions about succession at a company whose identity is closely bound to its founder.

Markets have not ignored it. Nvidia shares have declined nearly 30% since peaking around $239 in October 2026. By mid-November, the stock was hovering around $169, already trading below the $225 level Ives assigns to a Nvidia without Huang.

Ives estimates a 15% probability that Huang is removed, a number analysts usually don't attach to the CEO of a company this central to the AI trade. He warned that a removal could hit the stock immediately.

Strong fundamentals

While the leadership story dominates headlines, the operating numbers look like they belong to a different company. Nvidia's Q2 revenue reached $96.2 billion, a 106% increase year over year.

Data center revenue did most of the heavy lifting, surging 117% to $89 billion. Gross margins stand at 75%, meaning Nvidia keeps about three quarters of every revenue dollar after direct costs.

Looking ahead, revenue growth of around 70% is forecast for FY2028. Huang co-founded Nvidia and has steered it from a graphics chip maker into the dominant supplier of AI semiconductors.