Bitcoin's Two-Year Decline Challenges An Old Market Rule - Cointribune

Bitcoin trades around $74,300 on November 11, a decline of about 15.7% since the start of 2026. To avoid a second consecutive negative year, it would need to rise above its annual opening price near $87,500. Such a rebound would require an increase of about 18.5% before December 31, which remains possible given BTC's usual volatility but becomes more difficult as ETFs experience outflows and markets anticipate another rise in U.S. interest rates.

The annual performances put this risk into context: 2024 ended with an increase of about 121%; 2025 recorded a limited loss of 6.34%; 2026 currently shows a decline close to 16%. The cumulative loss over two years reaches about 21%, which is far less than the collapses recorded in 2018 and 2022. No negative year had until now been followed by another annual decline.

Breaking an 18-Year-Old Rule

Previous bear markets had always been followed by a rebound before the end of the next year. After its 73.6% collapse in 2018, bitcoin rose about 92% in 2019. After its 64.3% drop in 2022, it gained more than 155% in 2023. A negative close in 2026 would thus end a seemingly well-established alternation.

This possible double annual decline mainly calls into question the pattern built around the halving. Historically, the year following the halving of mining rewards had always been positive: 2013, 2017, and 2021 all recorded gains. The year 2025, which followed the April 2024 halving, broke this sequence by ending in the red.

The Timeline Minimizes the Crash's Severity

Two red years may seem more alarming than one large drop. Yet their cumulative loss of about 21% is far less than the collapses recorded in 2018 and 2022. This annual reading depends largely on an arbitrary boundary: December 31. It compares the price at two fixed dates without describing the path taken between them.

Bitcoin reached a record close to $126,200 in October 2025 before falling below $58,000 during the summer of 2026. Its actual decline from the peak therefore exceeded 50%, while the two annual candles show only a cumulative loss near 21%. This difference comes from the fact that the 2025 record was reached mid-year.

Bitcoin's Cycle Transforms

The market size partly explains this evolution. An asset weighing more than one trillion dollars requires much larger flows to double. Maximal performances have also decreased over the cycles, dropping from several thousand percent during the early years to 155% in 2023.

ETFs have also brought bitcoin closer to traditional markets. Managers now adjust their exposure based on bond yields, the dollar, technology stocks, and Federal Reserve decisions. In 2025, BTC behaved more like a risky asset alongside U.S. stocks. This institutionalization can reduce some annual drops thanks to deeper liquidity, without preventing significant corrections from peaks.

The first double annual decline of bitcoin would therefore not prove that the asset has become more fragile. It would rather signal that its rhythm has changed. The halving remains a supply factor, but global liquidity and institutional flows now more strongly dictate the schedule.