Netanyahu fights to stay relevant as Israel’s opposition closes in

In a dramatic shift from the bitter election campaign, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for national unity with the opposition bloc that narrowly defeated his ruling coalition in October's election. On Saturday, the same day President Isaac Herzog tasked former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot with forming a government, Netanyahu posted a video warning of genuine civil war risk if a government were established with Arab party support, which he accused of wanting to 'eliminate the State of Israel.'

Two days later, Netanyahu doubled down on his warnings, urging opposition leaders to recognize the 'needs of the hour' and join him in a unified government that would include ultra-Orthodox parties and his far-right allies Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. The political maneuvering comes as the new Knesset prepares to be sworn in Tuesday, with speculation focusing on the role of Ultra Orthodox parties in determining Israel's next government.

Ultra Orthodox parties hold key

United Torah Judaism (UTJ), one of the Ultra Orthodox parties that refused to endorse Netanyahu's government selection, is reportedly preparing to throw its support behind Eisenkot. This move could quiet objections from opposition figure Avigdor Lieberman, who faces the choice of partnering with Arab parties or potentially facing further elections under Netanyahu's continued rule.

Legal and political challenges

Netanyahu faces multiple challenges that threaten both his political legacy and personal freedom. Foremost are the corruption charges he is currently on trial for, despite his claims of innocence and preemptive petitions to President Herzog. More pressing is the question of his government's culpability for alleged failings before the October 7 Hamas attack that triggered the Gaza conflict.

The new Knesset includes many members directly affected by October 7, including bereaved families, reservists, and advocates for the 250-plus Israeli captives. Eisenkot himself lost a son and two nephews in the subsequent conflict. This composition creates a chamber where feelings over the attack and questions of culpability run close to the surface, with opposition leaders planning to install Matan Kahana to lead a state inquiry into Netanyahu's government failings.

Political fate uncertain

Netanyahu's political future now depends on an opposition that outnumbers his bloc and a volatile Knesset eager to examine past mistakes. Analysts note Netanyahu appears 'a bit lost' for the first time in a long while, though he continues to leverage security concerns in his negotiations.

Netanyahu's reported daily phone calls to the Trump administration urging renewed war on Iran may indicate his strategy to create such an emergency. As the Knesset prepares to convene, the former prime minister's ability to influence Israel's political direction appears increasingly uncertain as the opposition closes in.