Bitcoin price eyes $74K as Fed rate-hike bets hit 96% after Waller speech

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $74,080 on Bitstamp, down 1.3% on the day, as US stock futures also leaned lower ahead of the Wall Street open.

The market move came after Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said he would support a 0.25% interest-rate hike at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 9.

His decision, he added, would not be swayed by lower-than-expected inflation data.

Waller signals rate hike

The October prints of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) are due for release at 8:30 am Eastern time on Tuesday and are expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% versus September's 0.6%.

Waller also flagged high readings from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, known to be the Fed's 'preferred' inflation gauge.

He referred to PCE rising 0.5% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, saying, 'Let’s just say it. September’s inflation data were bad. There was no silver lining.'

Market repricing

Following the speech, markets immediately repriced the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December from 76.3% to 96.3%, per data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Financial policy tightening measures traditionally act as headwinds for crypto and risk asset prices as they imply a reduction in liquidity and associated capital inflows.

Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis CIB Americas, pointed to price declines in both fuel and shelter as the reason for the expected slowdown in CPI upside for October.

Data limitations

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which publishes CPI, confirmed that Tuesday's release would include only month-on-month statistics due to the 2025 US government shutdown reducing data availability.

CPI data for October 2025 was not issued for the same reason.