Moscow summit tests Russia’s waning grip on former Soviet allies
President Vladimir Putin will chair a session of the Collective Security Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) as Russia's tense relationship with Armenia takes center stage.
The Kremlin's strained relationship with Armenia will be under scrutiny at a security summit in Moscow, where President Vladimir Putin will chair a session of the Collective Security Council of the CSTO. Armenia's participation in the Russia-dominated military bloc has been frozen since February 2024, following the country's war with Azerbaijan.
While Armenia's membership technically exists, the country has effectively boycotted the CSTO after it lost the conflict and blamed the group for failing to offer meaningful support. "Armenia de facto doesn't participate in the CSTO's operations," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged last week.
Failed alliance
During the 2020 war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, the CSTO failed to live up to its core principle of mutual defense. Neither Russia nor other member states – Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – deployed troops to aid Armenia, despite the bloc's charter envisioning such assistance.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated on November 5 that "our interest in the CSTO has run its course." His anti-Kremlin stance has been a point of contention since he came to power in 2018 after protests against Russia-backed Armenian leaders.
Considering that the other CSTO nations are more dependent on Russia economically or stick to the, 'Don't poke the tiger' logic, they'll keep mum or watch how a bad student is being whipped in class.
Regional shifts
Armenia's move reflects a broader paradigm shift in the former Soviet Union, as Russia's influence wanes due to its war in Ukraine, Western sanctions, and economic challenges. Azerbaijan, which withdrew from the CSTO in 1999, used Russian weaponry alongside Turkish and Israeli-made drones to achieve military victory.
Former Soviet nations are exploring new military formats, including the Turkiye-led Organization of Turkic States, which includes Azerbaijan and three Central Asian nations. In late September, thousands of elite servicemen from Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Turkiye conducted joint military exercises in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia has also failed to convince Uzbekistan, Central Asia's economic powerhouse with 37 million people, to rejoin the CSTO. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev maintains a balancing act, demonstrating loyalty to Moscow while engaging with Western leaders like US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
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