Iran war oil shock drives dip in global emissions, study shows
Global carbon emissions are set to slightly drop this year, largely as a result of high energy prices following the US war on Iran and disruption of supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
While over the past decade, emissions from oil, gas and coal have risen by 0.9% per year, they are expected to drop by 0.4% in 2026. The study was released while global leaders are meeting in Turkey for the United Nations' COP31 climate conference.
Temporary decline
The study found that oil emissions dropped by 1.9% in 2026, while natural gas fell by 0.3%. Coal emissions however continued to rise, by around 0.6%.
No structural change
A structural change would mean emissions slowly rise to a peak then decline, indicating a long-term trend. "What we see this year is oil emissions are going up and then suddenly, bang, down 2%," Peters said.
This is the third time in recent years that global carbon pollution has dropped, following the 2009 economic crisis and 2020 COVID pandemic. In each case, emissions rebounded once economies recovered.
Renewables not enough
While renewable energy contributed to the data, solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles weren't enough to cut emissions by themselves. The overall rise in CO2 emissions by about 1% was due to land use changes like deforestation and peat fires.
Related
