New trilateral talks on Ukraine war in Abu Dhabi: What to expect?

When announcing the new trilateral talks last week, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said the discussions would focus on "post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian efforts, and next steps toward peace." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has named security guarantees, an energy ceasefire, unblocking the Black Sea, extended prisoner exchanges, and preparations for a meeting of the leaders of Ukraine, the United States and Russia as his key topics.

Who is sitting at the table?

Witkoff will be joined by US President Donald Trump's son-in-law, real estate developer Jared Kushner, who serves as special envoy. The Kremlin has sent Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, to act as chief negotiator, along with a delegation including high-ranking Russian military and intelligence officials. The Ukrainian delegation will be led by Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, along with Arakhamia, and diplomatic and military officials.

Europe joins in

Separate formats are planned with several European representatives, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's adviser Günter Sautter, French President Emmanuel Macron's diplomatic head Emmanuel Bonne, UK national security advisor Jonathan Powell, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's diplomatic adviser Fabrizio Saggio. Also attending will be Björn Seibert, Chief of Staff for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Geoffrey van Leeuwen, Chief of Staff for NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

However, it's doubtful whether European representatives will be formally involved in talks on a potential peace deal. Hanna Shelest, a security studies director at Ukrainian Prism, believes they'd play "an observing role, at best." She noted that Russia has been reluctant to have European representatives at the table to uphold the impression that talks were "a matter between two superpowers" and to increase pressure on Washington.

Oleshky truce as a template?

Late last week, Trump spoke of a "big beautiful agreement" after speaking with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev. This new security architecture, Kushner later clarified, would be centered around "permanent security consultations, reliable crisis communications, greater military transparency, reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks, and an enduring framework for long-term European security and stability." Shelest noted these points "don't contain anything the Russians haven't been talking about since 2009."

Observers suggest negotiators in Abu Dhabi might try to use the temporary truce brokered for Oleshky as a model for other limited humanitarian ceasefires in the region. US First Lady Melania Trump was credited with arranging this temporary truce in late October that secured humanitarian aid and allowed civilians to evacuate. However, Ivan Us, an economic diplomacy expert at Ukraine's National Institute for Strategic Studies, warned that Russia had continued attacks during the Oleshky truce and used the pause to fortify its positions around the town.