Brent Crude Fell 12.5% But Former Biden Advisor Warns Iran War Could Return
Brent crude held near $98 a barrel on Friday after a weekly drop of more than 12.5% on de-escalation hopes, but a former Biden energy adviser warns the odds of renewed US-Iran war are above 50/50.
US forces reportedly struck Iran’s Qeshm Island the day before the vote, a move Hochstein believes was delayed by days. He sees three options for President Donald Trump: renewed war, a deal he dislikes, or prolonged economic pressure on Iran.
I think that there is a very good chance that we go back to conflict.
Attacks on ships have not paused. Iran said attacks hit three more tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, and data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency suggests attacks on oil-carrying ships are running near a record pace.
Oil on Two Clocks
Brent now trades on two clocks: the White House’s decisions and tanker attacks. The midterms did not change the risk, and the market is splitting it between a deal and renewed strikes. Brent at $98 trades under its four-year high of more than $120.
Iran reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, demanding the US naval blockade lifted, sanctions eased and frozen assets released before it fully reopens Hormuz. The US still demands Tehran give up its nuclear capabilities.
Until there is a credible path to safer, cheaper transit through the Gulf, oil is likely to remain supported on dips and prone to sharp moves on any escalation headlines.
Goldman Sachs set a $105 December Brent target before the vote, citing supply disruption risk. Brent now trades below that target, leaving fuel buyers exposed to higher diesel, gasoline and jet fuel costs if fighting resumes.
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