Who won New Zealand’s photo-finish election and why special votes could change everything
New Zealand's right-leaning coalition, led by the National party, hopes to cling on to power after Saturday's cliffhanger general election, but the outcome remains uncertain until special votes are counted on 27 November.
While preliminary results show Labour just ahead on the popular vote – 29.36% to National's 29.21% – under the mixed member proportionate voting system (MMP), National won more seats in parliament, 42 seats to Labour's 36. It looks like 66 seats will be needed for a majority, and it's not clear yet whether this can be cobbled together by the left or right bloc.
Parliament expansion possible
New Zealand's parliament is typically made up of 120 seats, with 71 electorate seats and 49 list seats. The list seats are divided by parties depending on their party vote share. If a party wins more electorate seats than their party vote percentage would allow, extra seats are created – known as the 'overhang'.
On Saturday, both National and Te Pāti Māori gained more share of the electorates than their party vote, meaning parliament could be 10 or 11 seats bigger. This would be the biggest parliament in New Zealand's history and the first where political groups specifically asked voters to only give them their electorate vote to create an overhang.
Balance of power with Opportunity
Seven parties will likely be in parliament: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori in the left bloc, and National, NZ First and Act on the right. The newcomer Opportunity party, who have positioned themselves as centrist, won seven seats with their 6% party vote, crossing the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament for the first time.
Luxon previously said he wouldn't talk to Opportunity and its leader Qiulae Wong, but he might have no choice.
Special votes to decide
It's not typical for the two main parties to both get such low numbers on the same night. Talks can't begin until 27 November, once all the special votes are counted. Almost 400,000 yet-to-be-counted special votes could sway the result, potentially determining whether the left or right bloc forms the government.
Critics say the strategic voting to create an overhang undermines the spirit of MMP, which New Zealanders voted for in the 1990s after skewed results under first past the post system. Two reports since 2012 have proposed abolishing the overhang, but governments have chosen to ignore them.
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