New Zealand’s two major parties are flatlining as dispirited voters seek transformational change

New Zealand voters delivered a resounding rejection of the two major parties, sending the country into a hung parliament after the lowest combined vote share in history.

The result, delivered on election night, leaves the National Party with a razor-thin one-seat majority, forcing the country into caretaker mode and complex coalition talks.

Labour and National suffered historic defeats, with minor parties Act, the Greens, and New Zealand First achieving their best results. National holds a razor-thin one-seat majority, forcing the country into caretaker mode and complex coalition talks.

Historic low for major parties

Seven in 10 voters passed over Labour, and the same number skipped National. Between them, the two parties took just over half the party vote, 58% on election night, the lowest combined major party vote ever.

Labour gained 29.3% of the party votes and National 29.2%, a result the material describes as a flatlining of the traditional political duopoly.

The major parties have no one to blame for this flatlining but themselves. Not only did their vision and policy offerings fail to fire, but for the past four years, two middle-aged men named Chris (Luxon the leader of National and Hipkins for Labour) have struggled to excite the electorate.

Minor parties surge

Instead, a large proportion of the electorate shifted their party vote to the more transformationist minor parties, those with a clearer sense of purpose and vision for the country.

Act and the Greens both recorded their best results ever. New Zealand First had its best since 2002. Te Pāti Māori held more seats than expected. Opportunity crossed the 5% threshold for the first time, to win seats in parliament, and may be a kingmaker come 27 November, when the count is finalised.

National's narrow path to power

National fell 8.3 points, and the cost was brutal. Because National won more electorates than its party vote entitled it to, it gets no list seats at all. Senior figures who relied on the list are likely gone including the deputy leader and finance minister Nicola Willis, justice minister Paul Goldsmith, speaker of the house Gerry Brownlee, and high-ranking MP Chris Bishop.

In a quirk of the MMP voting system, National was still able to retain more electorate seats than its share of the party vote, causing an overhang and giving the party more seats overall. Parliament normally has 120 seats, and a majority is 61. On election night the size of the house had grown to 131, with six overhang seats for National and five for Te Pāti Māori. That lifts the bar to 66. On election night the coalition cleared it with one seat to spare: National’s 42, plus 25 for ACT and NZ First.

Luxon seemed to know it. When he eventually appeared to speak to the nation at midnight, he gave no victory speech, conceding that while National was still the largest party in parliament and had a pathway to forming the next government, the election was too close to call. Serious negotiations and compromises would wait for the final count on 27 November. Until then, the government continues in caretaker mode.

Kingmaker risk and final count

If the count holds, Luxon’s early decision to rule out working with Opportunity will have paid off, by a single seat. Whether by design or by luck, he will have avoided eating his words and calling Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong. But if the specials move even one seat, that call is back on the table.

Nor will a one-seat majority make governing easy. In a tight parliament, every government MP is a kingmaker. One backbencher with a grievance or a leadership grudge can hold the government to ransom. A single member defection could bring it down. So could a byelection, if an electorate MP dies, resigns or is caught in a scandal.