Bitcoin traders could mistake this Binance data change for a rush to sell
Bitcoin is trading near $76,000 ahead of Tuesday's US inflation report, with a warning from data provider Coin Metrics complicating apparent signals of increased selling on Binance.
Bitcoin was quoted at $75,871 on Nov. 7, with $76,000 in view as a rounded market price. CryptoSlate's Nov. 7 report cited CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost describing more aggressive spot selling than buying on Binance and Coinbase. However, Coin Metrics' coverage notice introduces a complication: a larger reported Binance wallet balance can reflect expanded address coverage without fresh coins arriving.
The upcoming US inflation release on Tuesday, Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, will provide a defined window for traders to compare potential selling with actual demand. A balance chart alone cannot show whether holders have simply moved coins onto an exchange or sold them.
Data confusion
In its Nov. 4 notice, Coin Metrics announced it would update exchange-address data after additional addresses were disclosed. The provider anticipated significant increases in some hourly supply metrics that day and daily metrics on Nov. 5, particularly for Binance BTC measures in native units and US dollars.
Coin Metrics explained that these planned changes would reflect broader address coverage without a corresponding change in actual exchange holdings. The warning highlights that identifying an additional wallet changes what the dataset sees, without establishing that a customer has just deposited more Bitcoin.
The planned changes would reflect broader address coverage without a corresponding change in actual exchange holdings.
What traders should watch
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October CPI data on Tuesday, which could affect expectations for monetary policy. Inflation news might influence Treasury yields and appetite for risk, with the Federal Reserve explaining how expected policy changes can affect longer-term rates and asset prices.
For Bitcoin's demand test, comparable flows would show whether coins are moving onto exchanges, while executed spot trades would reveal whether sellers are executing against standing buy orders. A resilient price despite aggressive selling would suggest buyers are absorbing the pressure, while sustained price weakness would indicate weaker demand.
Traders must ensure observations cover comparable periods and measurements, accounting for Binance's changing wallet coverage. The useful signal from Tuesday's inflation report will be how actual selling meets demand, with proper interpretation of exchange data.
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