Fidelity's Jurien Timmer Explains Why He Still Prefers Bitcoin Over Gold

Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, remains more bullish on Bitcoin than gold, even as both assets experience selling pressure amid broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets. Timmer's preference comes despite the challenging market conditions affecting both digital and traditional assets.

Relative Performance

Timmer stated in a recent X post that he still favors Bitcoin over gold for now, pointing to Bitcoin's relative price performance despite the selloff affecting both assets. This preference reflects his assessment of Bitcoin's position within the current market environment.

Market Correlations

Timmer has observed that Bitcoin and gold have become more correlated with traditional equity markets in recent weeks, joining the broader risk-off movement. According to his analysis, both assets currently show a 60-70% correlation to the S&P index, indicating their movement is increasingly tied to stock market performance.

This correlation shift represents a notable change in market dynamics, as both assets traditionally served as alternatives to equities. Timmer previously suggested in mid-2024 that Bitcoin might be entering a new 4-year cycle bull market based on its power law patterns.

Market Indicators

Bitcoin price currently stands at $75,904, down 0.08% in the last 24 hours, as investors assess a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, strengthening the case for another rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting.

Markets are pricing in a more than 77% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the December 9 Fed meeting, up from 66% the previous day. However, next week's inflation numbers (CPI and PPI reports) and equity market stabilization could prove more decisive for the Fed's decision.