Suspicious prediction market activity seen before election poll release: NYT
Suspicious prediction market bets were placed shortly before two recent New York Times/Siena political polls were released to the public, according to a report.
A Polymarket user placed a nearly $200,000 bet on Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts' re-election on Oct. 31, just hours before a New York Times/Siena poll was released showing Ricketts in the lead.
The user also made similar large bets on other markets, including Kalshi, according to a Friday New York Times report. The user won more than $77,000 from the trades.
Platform investigation
Polymarket said it had spotted the trades and was investigating. Kalshi declined to comment on the matter.
The case is the latest in a series of alleged insider trading activities on prediction markets. In April, a US Army soldier was charged after making more than $400,000 by betting on a prediction market allegedly using nonpublic information tied to a US operation involving then Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Operation Absolute Resolve
The Department of Justice alleged that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to the capture of Maduro at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, in January.
Van Dyke allegedly used this information to buy "yes" shares in related Polymarket contracts, including "Maduro out by January 31" and "Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31".
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