What a Trump-Xi-Putin summit could mean – and what it wouldn’t

China is actively coordinating with relevant parties regarding the potential meeting, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning confirming communications are underway. The Kremlin has also indicated progress, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating that work is being done to finalize the meeting, which could happen in the coming days. Trump has expressed openness to three-way talks focused on nuclear weapons, telling reporters last month, If President Xi wants to have it, I'd have it. The three leaders have met separately but have never held formal talks together.

Russia's Strategic Gain

For Russia, the meeting would provide at minimum a significant photo opportunity and platform to elevate its international standing. Alexander Bratersky, a Moscow-based journalist and political analyst, described the meeting as potentially a path towards a new Yalta – referencing the 1945 conference that shaped post-war European order.

The meeting would position Putin as first among equals in discussions about Europe's security architecture after the Ukraine war. Bratersky noted that Trump's weakened position following midterm elections, where Democrats gained control of both chambers, could benefit Russia by potentially reducing Trump's leverage regarding Ukraine aid.

Trump's Diplomatic Calculus

Trump appears motivated by both optics and leverage in pursuing this summit. Professor Inderjeet Parmar of City St George's, University of London, explained that Trump wants a personal, high-drama encounter that allows him to present himself as the indispensable deal-maker on the world stage.

The domestic political context is significant, with Trump potentially seeking a foreign policy win after the midterm elections. Any image of Trump meeting with Xi and Putin could be presented as evidence of continued American influence, even if the substance is limited or largely symbolic. Parmar emphasized that the domestic audience, and his eroding MAGA base, matters at least as much as the diplomatic one.

China's Strategic Focus

China appears to be carefully managing the summit's agenda, explicitly avoiding discussions about Ukraine. According to German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Xi indicated that the Russia-Ukraine war is a European conflict where Europeans must sit at the table. Beijing is also likely to resist Trump's push for nuclear talks, with China's Foreign Ministry previously stating it would be neither fair, reasonable nor realistic to ask China to join the so-called trilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage.

Global Implications

Such a trilateral meeting would represent a significant departure from post-1945 diplomatic patterns, where Washington traditionally coordinated with allies before engaging with Moscow or Beijing. Parmar warned that this approach risks treating allies as secondary players whose interests can be managed after the fact. While fears of a permanent G3 alliance may be overstated due to diverging interests on Ukraine, Taiwan, and technology, the real concern is the normalization of great-power deals struck with little consultation of those most affected.

The potential meeting's significance will become clearer within the next month, with possible follow-up discussions at the G20 summit in Miami in December. If no substantive results emerge by Christmas, Bratersky suggested, it will just be a photo op. The world watches as these three leaders potentially reshape the landscape of international diplomacy.