Russia and US seek to block plan for binding rules on autonomous weapons
Plans for binding international rules on autonomous weapons are in jeopardy as Russia and the US lead opposition at a UN conference this month.
The seventh review conference on 'certain conventional weapons' in Geneva, scheduled for November 16-20 and attended by 128 countries, represents a critical moment for global governance of autonomous weapons. Despite three years of UN discussions and a draft treaty text already agreed upon by consensus on key elements, opposition from Russia, the US, and other nations threatens to prevent the establishment of legally binding rules.
The conference faces a stark choice between moving forward with negotiations on a binding instrument or continuing with non-binding voluntary measures that critics argue lack enforcement mechanisms. The rapid development and deployment of AI weapons in modern warfare have intensified calls for international regulation.
Growing opposition
Russia, the US, and Israel are actively working against establishing a timetable for a legally binding instrument. While a coalition of 50 states including Ireland, Italy, Brazil, Mexico, France, and Germany has called for a strict negotiating mandate, the UK has declined to support this approach, arguing that existing international humanitarian law is sufficient.
States have never been closer to launching a global agreement on AI weapons. A lot of the hard work has already been done and states have now agreed by consensus to elements of a draft treaty text that would be the basis for negotiations to start. But we will likely see some states hide behind language that has the veneer of progress but advocates for a continuation of endless discussions on voluntary measures that have no teeth.
Real-world concerns
The urgency of establishing regulations is underscored by real incidents involving AI weapons. In July, Ukraine reported Russia's use of an AI-guided drone that struck a fuel station in Zaporizhzhia. Meanwhile, a US bombing of a school in Minab, Iran, on February 28 killed at least 175 people, with targeting decisions involving the Maven AI system operated by Palantir.
Human Rights Watch and Stop Killer Robots highlight how AI-assisted weapons systems can behave unpredictably, increasing the risk of fatal errors and battlefield scenarios spiraling beyond human control. The International Committee of the Red Cross has emphasized that the time has come to move from discussion to negotiation on new international rules.
International pressure
Pope Leo XIV has called for AI to be 'disarmed' and urged concrete steps toward banning lethal autonomous weapons, stressing that decisions affecting human life must remain under human oversight. The ICRC and outgoing UN Secretary-General António Guterres have jointly warned that the world is nearing a 'moral red line' where autonomous weapons could kill without human involvement.
Despite overwhelming public support in France, Germany, and the UK for a global treaty to limit AI weapons, skepticism remains about whether such agreements would be respected. With 163 states having voted in favor of launching negotiations, significant pressure now exists to establish binding regulations before autonomous weapons technology advances further.
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