Cop31 will expose the conflicts and contradictions of the world’s fossil fuel reliance
Coal exporter Australia and coal consumer Turkey will co-host Cop31 in Antalya, aiming to shift focus to clean electricity with a target to meet 35% of final energy demand from electricity by 2035.
The Cop31 UN climate summit in Antalya presents a unique paradox as it's co-chaired by two countries with deep ties to coal: Australia, a major coal exporter, and Turkey, a heavy coal consumer. Despite this apparent conflict, both nations are attempting to redirect global attention toward clean electricity, establishing an ambitious target to meet 35% of final energy demand from electricity by 2035.
The geopolitical landscape surrounding this year's conference is particularly challenging, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Iran and Gaza destabilizing global alliances. Meanwhile, an unpredictable White House creates economic uncertainty, and rapid AI development threatens to unleash digital chaos. Against this backdrop, an El Niño weather system supercharged by fossil fuels is already causing significant damage worldwide.
Unusual hosting arrangement
The dual presidency arrangement resulted from a last-minute compromise at Cop30 in Belém. Australia had sought hosting rights since 2021 when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese included it in his election promises. Turkey also claimed prior agreements dating back to its discussions with the UK during Cop26 in 2021. Due to UNFCCC rules from 1992, both countries fall in the same regional group as western Europe, creating a deadlock that required compromise.
Under the arrangement, Australia will chair formal negotiations on issues including the 'just transition' for fossil fuel workers, the loss and damage fund, climate finance, and emissions cuts. Turkey will oversee the 'action agenda' focusing on voluntary commitments, with electrifying the global economy as its central theme alongside waste reduction and methane initiatives – topics supported by Turkey's first lady Emine Erdoğan.
Political context
Cop31 marks several significant political milestones, occurring after elections that reshaped climate politics. The US midterms delivered a setback to Donald Trump and Republicans, while Brazil's presidential election saw Lula da Silva win, bringing relief for the Amazon rainforest which would have faced increased exploitation under his opponent Flávio Bolsonaro. The summit also serves as farewell for UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who has made climate action a centerpiece of his tenure.
Despite some positive developments, the climate outlook remains dire. UN reports indicate preventing temperatures from rising beyond 1.8°C will require massive and immediate greenhouse gas emission cuts, yet global emissions have yet to peak. Phasing out fossil fuels has never been more urgent, though both host countries continue significant coal dependencies.
People in Afşin-Elbistan have lived with coal for 40 years and have already paid a heavy price in pollution and the impacts of coal.
Coal tensions persist
Australia's Cop31 president Chris Bowen indicated the country could begin shifting from fossil fuel exports toward clean electricity but refused to set any coal phaseout timeline. Turkey remains heavily dependent on coal for power, with its national climate plan actually allowing for increased greenhouse gas emissions rather than reductions.
A coalition of 50 frontline organizations from Turkey, Australia and other coal regions has called for an end to coal mining and use. They point to Turkey's recent cancellation of plans to expand its largest coal-fired power plant as a victory for local communities and hope Cop31 will build on this momentum to accelerate coal phaseout and ensure a just transition for affected workers.
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